Perhaps never before has the college game had such a slew of power arms – Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Danny Hultzen, Taylor Jungmann etc. – eligible for the MLB Draft this year. Let’s take a look at how TCU’s starting rotation – Matt Purke, Kyle Winkler, and Steven Maxwell – fit into the mix and where they might land in June’s First Year Player Draft.
Matt Purke
Purke, drafted 14th overall by the Texas Rangers coming out of high school in 2009, went 16-0 as a Freshman last year and was regarded as one of the top 2011 draft prospects heading into this season. Most draft sites and blogs, Keith Law included, had the Mariners taking the lefty with the second overall pick behind Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon. After Purke’s ho-hum start, though, his draft status may have slipped a little in favor of righties Gerrit Cole (UCLA) and Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt). Still, though, I can’t see Purke falling out of the top 10. Much has been made about his lack of velocity and recent control issues, but when scouts come to Fort Worth they still see a left-hander with an 89-93 mph fastball and a plus slider. Throw in the fact that most teams are aware of his ability to throw in the upper-90s and that his arm still isn’t fully in shape, Purke looks to be an even higher draft pick than he was coming out of high school.
Kyle Winkler
The scouting report on Winkler should look similar to this:
Right-hander, fastball consistently 92-95 MPH, strikeout pitcher, ace mindset, plus curveball.
That’s how Winkler has been each time out for TCU this year and that’s the main reason he’s moved into the team’s Friday night/ace role with a 5-1 record and a 1.26 ERA. The righty was sort of a third wheel in 2010 behind Purke and Maxwell but pitched with Team USA last summer, developed his off-speed pitches, and matured into an ace-caliber pitcher. Fort Worth Star-Telegram beat writer Stefan Stevenson tweeted Tuesday that, if he had to guess, Winkler would go anywhere from the second to fourth round in June. Can’t say I disagree with Stevenson. Both his fastball and ability to strike batters out has been better than Purke’s this year and although Purke is a lefty and his ceiling may be higher, you’d have to think Winkler, who dominates just the same, would be worth a high draft pick and a hefty signing bonus, too.
Steven Maxwell
Maxwell was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 12th round of last year’s draft but the righty opted to return for his fifth season at TCU. And it may end up paying off for the 2010 Mountain West Conference Pitcher of the Year. Through eight starts, Maxwell is 5-0 with an even 3.00 ERA and recently threw the first complete game of his career. Composure and confidence may be his greatest strength, but Maxwell also has a fastball that consistently ranges from 89-93 MPH as well as a plus curveball. That in itself is amazing considering the journey the Woodlands, TX native has taken since arriving at TCU. Maxwell suffered a season-ending elbow injury his sophomore year, underwent Tommy John surgery, and was granted a medical redshirt. After missing year, he made 10 starts his sophomore year before going 11-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 2010. The righty’s injury history may scare some teams away but some organization, probably somewhere around the 8-12th round, will take a chance on Maxwell and draft him. He’ll never be a power pitcher in the major leagues but I can easily see him as a fourth or fifth starter who throws strikes, stays in control at all times, and has the ability to work out of jams, all of which he has proven the last two years with the Frogs.
Tags: Danny Hultzen, Gerrit Cole, Kyle Winkler, Matt Purke, MLB, MLB Draft Prospects, Rice, Rice Baseball, Rice Owls, Seattle Mariners, Sonny Gray, Steven Maxwell, Taylor Jungmann, TCU, TCU baseball, Trevor Bauer
[...] wrote earlier this year about how Winkler was expected to go anywhere from the first to fourth round in the MLB draft. He [...]