The Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys Monday Night Football Brawl

Recently, the Dallas Cowboys have been struggling, but so have their opponents, the Chicago Bears. The Bears’ offense has been anemic (currently ranked 27th in the league), and their defense has been their only saving grace, as they’ve held the Colts, Packers and Rams all to under 24 points scoring. They’ve taken advantage of an easy schedule, defeating last year’s two worst teams, while losing to last year’s best (in terms of win-loss percentage.) No shame there. They haven’t hit the tough part of their schedule yet because there isn’t one; eight of their last twelve opponents were among last years’ worst (although the Cardinals, their week 16 opponent, have been a surprise.) It’s entirely possible that this could be a wildcard match-up, should both teams beat who their supposed to (though we all know that that isn’t a given. We’re Cowboys fans. Disappointment is in our genes). This means the only Dallas Cowboys Monday Night Football appearance of the season is of extreme importance, and come week 18 we could see this same match-up again in the first round of the playoffs. Hopefully we won’t (because the Cowboys have a first round bye), but in case we do, pay attention to the offensive lines and pass rush of both teams. Barring injuries, these will most likely stay constant, while quarterback performance and the rushing attack from both teams will be improved by then.

Sep 23, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (9) in the pocket against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cowboys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

News and Notes:

• Thank God we kept Mike Jenkins. At first I thought it useless, having four starting cornerbacks for three slots, but I was wrong. Actually, keeping him might save the Cowboys’ season. Now that Barry Church looks done for the year, Jenkins is an absolute necessity.  Currently, Danny McCray will play safety in Church’s absence, but in nickel packages Carr will take McCray’s spot, so having another capable, experienced cornerback to take over his spot could be the difference between 8-8 and 10-6. How much trust do you currently have in LeQuan Lewis?
• Pray that Gerald Sensabaugh is active next week. Currently, the two starting safeties, Danny McCray and Mana Silva, started the season as backups and have a total of 35 games between them. That sounds good, until you realize that Danny McCray accounts for 31 of those.
• Hopefully Jay Cutler is the quarterback of the last two games. He has combined for 309 yards, one touchdown and sports a 51.85 completion percentage over the last two games, against Green Bay and St. Louis. Neither is an awful defensive team, but a professional quarterback has to to better than 183 yards with a less than 55% completion percentage against an average defense. Actually, I take that back-we all just watched Josh Freeman.
• An unsettling trend is developing, involving (surprise, surprise) penalties. After last week’s game, the Cowboys have committed 36 penalties in 3 games. For those not math-inclined, that’s 12 a game, which puts them on pace for 192. (I’m not quite sure where Mr. Archer came up with 165. Setting up a proportion [36/3=X/16] equals 192.) Either way, he’s right-this is the type of performance we expect out of the Oakland Raiders.
• Jason Witten is struggling. Not much news or breakdown here. Actually, it’s pretty self explanatory. He has a total, over three games, of 76 yards receiving, and had three drops last week. Apparently, he exited the back door to avoid the media questions. This has to stop eventually, right?
• As if we didn’t already know, the refs are out to get the Cowboys. Last week a replacement referee literally threw his hat right were Kevin Ogletree wanted to go. A coincidence that a deal with the real refs was finally reached this week? I choose to think not.

Predictions:

• Jay Cutler throws a pick, maybe two. Jay Cutler hasn’t had a great three weeks (save for a fluke-y performance against the Colts,) and against a good defense like the Cowboys, I don’t see that changing. He hasn’t thrown for more than 220 yards since the first week, and threw a pick against the Rams, a team that has some surprising similarities with the Cowboys. Both have a solid pass rush (though the Rams have one through their defensive line and the Cowboys have one through their linebacking corps,) and both have a shut down corner (Cortland Finnegan for the Rams and Brandon Carr for the Cowboys) capable of shutting down one side of the field. Also, the two teams have some questions in the secondary that teams could potentially exploit should a running game get started. However, at least the Cowboys can stop the run, even if they don’t always show it. But against the Bears, I think the Cowboys will. They held the Bucs and Giants to under one hundred yards rushing, and the Bears are pretty decent comparables with either. If they Cowboys can force the Bears to depend on the pass, that would be a huge advantage (obviously) and having a not-particularly-mobile quarterback who passes off his back foot with a bad offensive line face off against a solid overall defense with the NFL’s best defensive player seems like a great combination for the Cowboys
• Tony Romo throws for less than 260 yards. Tony Romo typically is a one in two bet to throw for 300 yards or more, but he hasn’t been the same the last two weeks, and the Bears are actually quite good at shutting down the pass, holding their last two opposing quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers and Sam Bradford) to under 220 yards passing. The Bears’ defense is overrated, but they can still get to the quarterback, averaging almost four sacks a game, and Tony Romo is under constant pressure from his offensive line. Nothing I just said sounds indicative of a great day for Tony Romo.
• Demarco Murray rushes for 85 or more yards. Currently, Murray has a 4.3 yards per rush average, and the Bears give up 4.5 yards per rush. If Demarco Murray rushes 20 times at his normal rate, he has 85 yards. That’s not hard math. More easy math? The only game where they truly dominated the run was against St. Louis, who played from behind literally the entirety of the game. Demarco Murray ought to have a good day.
• The Cowboys win 14-13. The Cowboys have had a dormant offense for the last two games, and against a pretty good defense like the Bears’ I don’t see that changing. However, the Bears’ offense has been even worse, with their quarterback failing to eclipse 200 yards for two straight games. I don’t see that changing either. Since the Cowboys have been slightly better offensively and defensively, I give them a slightly better score, and they win. If either team breaks out, however, this prediction goes to hell and a blowout ensues, and I’ll look like an idiot. Hopefully, I’m right.

Ready to join the SportDFW Nation? Check us out on Facebook, Twitter or contact us at therealsportdfw@gmail.com