What are the Odds the Mavericks Actually get Dwight Howard?

Mailbag: What are the Odds the Mavericks Actually get Dwight Howard?

This sounds rhetorical but I’m going to take it as literal for the sake of discussion. There are really four teams vying for his services: Lakers, Mavericks, Rockets, and Hawks. It depends who you are talking to around the league but Dallas can be seen anywhere from #1 to #3 on that list.

Apr 21, 2013; San Antonio, TX, USA; Los Angeles Lakers center Dwight Howard (12) is defended by San Antonio Spurs forward Tim Duncan (21) during game one of the first round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at AT

One month ago – in fact – one week ago, most people would say the Rockets and Lakers are in a dead heat to obtain D12. The reason being, LA is a cool city that can pay Dwight roughly $30M more on any contract. He may have been miserable on the court but extra money and sandy beaches have a way of washing away bad memories. Houston is also a favorite because they are building into a young and up-coming team with (23 year old) Superstar James Harden already locked down.

But since Chris Broussard broke the news that Howard was unlikely to stay in LA and he was leaning towards Dallas more than anything, I think the odds drastically changed. If I had to nail down odds today I’d place the Mavericks as the favorites with a 40% chance. I’d say the Rockets are right behind them at 30%, the Lakers are 20%, and the Hawks and anyone else are the remaining 10%. So while the Mavs may be the favorite team to land Dwight, I still think the odds are greater (60%) he’ll be somewhere else.

We must all keep in mind how indecisive Howard is and his decision could change on a dime. I think he would be miserable in LA but those beaches, the weather, the beautiful people, of yeah – the MONEY, may all get the better of him. We CANNOT rule LA out. Houston has a really good team but the run a scheme Howard doesn’t like. All they have to do is convince him they will change the scheme to his liking and they will become the favorite.

So you see, the situation looks much better in Dallas than it once had. But we still have a long way to go.

Do you have questions or comments regarding Dallas area sports? Email Reid at [email protected]. You may be included in the next weekly mailbag. Follow Reid on twitter @ReidDHanson

Topics: Dallas Mavericks, Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets, NBA Free Agency

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