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Cowboys: Why playoffs MAY NOT determine Garrett’s future

By Reid Hanson

ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 30: Head coach Jason Garrett of the Dallas Cowboys stands on the field during warm-ups before the footbal game against the Washington Redskins at AT&T Stadium on November 30, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 30: Head coach Jason Garrett of the Dallas Cowboys stands on the field during warm-ups before the footbal game against the Washington Redskins at AT&T Stadium on November 30, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) /
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Cowboys Nation is confidently proclaiming it’s playoffs or bust regarding the future of Jason Garrett’s employment, but something else may be more important.

Time is running out for head coach Jason Garrett. After compiling a paltry 67-53 record over the last few seasons as head coach, this season appears to be make-or-break for coach Garrett. But what makes him and what breaks him may ultimately prove different from what most of us suspect.

Debates are raging as to what Jason Garrett needs to accomplish in order to save his job. Some say it’s making the playoffs. Others say it’s making a run in the playoffs. I’m here to say, it may be something else entirely.

All about Dak

The Dallas Cowboys future is linked to the future of Dak Prescott. Love him or hate him, he’s probably going to be the signal-caller for foreseeable future. That’s why his development may be the most important objective for Jason Garrett and staff this season.

If Dak Prescott can bounce back from his last eight games, and become the player he proved to be the first 24 games of his career, it may be enough to keep Garrett employed in 2019. Even if the Cowboys miss the playoffs.

Would you rather?

Here’s a fun scenario to play. I’ll give two possible outcomes of the 2018 season, and you will pick which one you’d rather have come true.

Scenario No. 1: The Cowboys defense becomes a top-10 unit (not much of a stretch). The offensive line regains its dominance. And Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL in rushing. But Dak Prescott repeatedly misses his targets, lowers his completion percentage, and struggles converting 3rd downs.

The Cowboys are a good enough “team” to win 10 games and get into the playoffs and manage to win a Wild Card game in a low-scoring snoozefest. But they ultimately get bested by Aaron Rodgers when he goes up by 14 in the third quarter and Dallas is unable to play from behind.

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Scenario No. 2: The Cowboys defense improves modestly as multiple young players progress. The running game is strong and the passing game is efficient and opportunistic. The lack of playmakers in the passing game is noticeable but not overly surprising. Not many 300-yard passing games, but clutch play by Prescott as he lifts the team in critical situations and delivers a high third down completion rate with mistake-free football.

The Cowboys finish 9-7 again after suffering through the growing pains of the new receivers and new tight ends but progress is seen throughout the season on all fronts.  In the end, the Cowboys fail to qualify for the postseason.

Which outcome would you rather?

Quarterbacks are so hard to find, and so difficult to develop, it’s extremely possible the less successful campaign (Scenario No. 2) would be the optimal outcome to Jerry Jones.

Next: Where Dallas May be in Trouble in 2018

Few will argue Jason Garrett and staff are on the hot seat in Dallas. But what will ultimately make-or-break them may have more to do with progression and player development than the actual record. What do you think? Which would you rather?

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