Dallas Cowboys 2023 draft grades: The science of the grades, pick by pick

Welcome to the most controversial time of the NFL year. A time when Dallas Cowboys fans are at their most argumentative. A time when no one can agree, camps divide, and philosophies are argued and ignored. It’s time for Draft grades.

As the saying goes, “opinions are like elbows…(or something like that).” Everyone has a take and their scales all vary. One grader could use a “C” for 80 percent of the field since it represents meeting expectations. Someone else may consider meeting expectations as an “A” grade and consider a “C” slight. Some are based on their own predictions for the player. Others are based on team needs.

This ain’t that.

These Dallas Cowboys 2023 draft grades are not a prediction of success but rather based on value, need, risk, and scarcity.

Admittedly, my grades are vastly different from most. In no way am I trying to predict how a player will perform. Let me repeat and rephrase – these are not a prediction or based on how good I think a player may or may not be. Those are scouting reports.

These grades here are based on information we have today. Things like the following:

1. Draft position vs expected draft position (based on consensus board)
2. Positional value (positional WAR)
3. Surplus value (savings of rookie contract over veteran contract of that position)
4. Need (which speaks to impact on the Dallas Cowboys)
5. Risk (developmental players have more risk than polished players)
6. Scarcity (shallow positions need to be over-drafted and then vice versa)

Based on all of this, a player could theoretically get an “F,” go on to have a Hall of Fame career and the grade will still hold true. Because again, these are not based on how good I think a player is or a prediction of how their career will play out.

Clear as mud?

The thing all Dallas Cowboys fans need to keep in mind is, more often than not, the Cowboys draft excellent players. Even if they reach on a pick or implement suspect strategy in their methods, they usually end up with really good players.

There is much to be excited for because Will McClay and staff are very good at their jobs. These grades have almost nothing to do with Will McClay and everything to do with the items listed above (cue the “I think I trust Will McClay more than …” comment from someone who didn’t read any of this explanation).

Note: The consensus board is based on top draft boards. Consensus boards have been proven to coincide 80 percent of the time per Sumer Sports so it’s an extremely accurate way to assess value.

Dallas Cowboys Pick 26: Mazi Smith, DT (Michigan)

Mazi Smith, 6-foot-3, 323 pounds, is possibly the widest human in the draft. Rated No. 1 in Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List, Smith is also one of the most athletic people on the planet. His blend of size/speed is special and while he’s a developmental player, he’s also an immediate contributor for the Dallas Cowboys.

For an excellent analysis of Smith, be sure to check out John Owning’s post-draft report over at PFF. John has been steadfast in his support of Smith since this winter so his takes are authentic and he has the receipts.

In a nutshell, Smith is a blue-chip talent found in the back-half of the round. That’s not easy to pull off so kudos to the Dallas Cowboys. He’s an instant impact player against the run but a project as a pass rusher. This is reflected in the “risk” section since much of his value comes from his ability to be an interior pressure player one day.

Smith was drafted at 26 with a consensus value at 36. If the Cowboys didn’t pick him, he would have been picked by someone else, which is reflected in the “scarcity” grade. Dominant IOL were few and far between and Smith was in a category all by himself.

Surplus value is based on what a player like him would cost on a second contract. Elite IOL values are ballooning so as long as Smith gets pass-rush production, he’ll be in the top tier of surplus value.

The need is obvious. The pathway to the Super Bowl runs through Philly and San Fran. The Dallas Cowboys have to get stout to stop their dominant run games and Smith helps in the biggest way possible.

• Draft position value: 70
• Positional value: 85
• Surplus value: 90
• Need: 90
• Risk: 80
• Scarcity: 95

Grade: B (85)

The two things holding this pick back is overall consensus value and the undeveloped skill set rushing the passer (risk). Nothing wrong with this pick at all.

Dallas Cowboys Pick 58: Luke Schoonmaker, TE (Michigan)

When the Dallas Cowboys went on the clock, they had a few good looking options awaiting them. Not just at TE but at a handful of positions. But Dallas seemingly knew who they wanted and made the pick regardless of who was on the board.

Luke Schoonmaker, 6-foot-5, 255 pounds, wasn’t at the top of many boards. The Michigan TE rated 80 on the consensus board indicating the Dallas Cowboys picked him far ahead of most valuations.

TE isn’t an overly valuable position in the NFL. Unless the prospect is an elite pass catcher, their value is limited (hence it’s one of the lowest paid positions in the NFL). This impacts surplus value and positional value since Schoonmaker is a project player in the passing game.

From a need perspective it’s a good pick. The Dallas Cowboys needed to bring in someone to platoon with Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot and Schoonmaker enters the TE room as the alpha blocker of the bunch.

Schhonmaker’s best quality is his risk – or lack thereof. Even if he never develops (which is possible because he’s abnormally old for a rookie) he’ll be useful as a blocker. But to draft a run-blocking specialist when the unit is ultra-deep and many options remained, is hard to justify.

• Draft position value: 60
• Positional value: 70
• Surplus value: 70
• Need: 85
• Risk: 95
• Scarcity: 60

Grade: C – (73)

Dallas Cowboys Pick 90: DeMarvion Overshown, LB (Texas)

Once again, many attractive options were on the board when the Dallas Cowboys went on the clock at 90. Overshown looked like a special player with a special set of skills they couldn’t ignore.

Picked only six spots before his consensus value, Overshown offered good value at 90. His positional value is hard to nail down. Like Micah Parsons three years ago, it depends if he’s an off-ball LB or EDGE rusher. LB isn’t a valuable position while pass-rusher is extremely valuable.

Based on conversation they’re leaning towards him being at least 50% pass-rusher so his value gets rewarded here.

Need isn’t obvious at pass rusher but the Cowboys could use some sub-package help at LB and the entire landscape figures to change in two years so he gets a 75 grade in “need”

He’s not in his expected role and is seen as a developmental player so risk exists, but he’s so physically gifted it’s hard to see him ever busting. This isn’t the deepest LB class but it’s a good EDGE class so the score is split between the two since he projects as a hybrid.

• Draft position value: 80
• Positional value: 85
• Surplus value: 80
• Need: 75
• Risk: 80
• Scarcity: 77

Grade: B- (80)

Dallas Cowboys Day 3 Picks

Picks outside the top-100 are less likely to succeed in the NFL so the weighted average of their scores drops considerably. Surplus value is less of a factor, risk inherently increases, scarcity is obviously diminished the closer we get to the end, etc…

 Dallas Cowboys draft DL Viliami Fehoko at 129

Fehoko, 6-foot-4, 276 pounds, comes with inside/outside versatility. Like Chauncey Golston, he could log most of his snaps inside. He’s an all-around player and could apply +pressure as an IDL which is a clear boost to his value. He’s a low risk player with a high floor and a ceiling yet to be reached.

High character, high floor, position versatility, good against the run, it’s hard to not love this pick

Grade: A –

Dallas Cowboys draft OL Asim Richards at 169

Richards, 6-foot4, 309 pounds, joins the Dallas Cowboys as a tackle with guard ability. The North Carolina product is one of the most experienced linemen in the class. While he’s a little slow on his feet he understands his game and plays and extremely mean brand of football.

Richards was drafted in the appropriate range and should be able to compete for the Cowboys LG position.

Grade B

The Dallas Cowboys trade up and draft CB Eric Scott

When the Dallas Cowboys traded up at the top of the sixth round, they did so targeting a specific player. Southern Miss CB Eric Scott didn’t register on many radars before so his selection took just about everyone by surprise. Rated as the 60th best CB by Dane Brugler, Scott was a reach even by sixth round standards.

But he comes with attractive traits and he was clearly a target. He stood out in the broad jump during testing and the Dallas Cowboys are known to target that specific trait when hunting for DBs.

Value, needs, impact and risk are all concerns.

Grade: D

The Dallas Cowboys select Deuce Vaughn with the 212th pick

Moments in the draft don’t get more special than this. When a Cowboys scout Chris Vaughn was given the chance to turn in his own son’s card, it was movie-quality coolness. While that’s not something we grade, it’s certainly worth discussing.

Deuce Vaughn, 5-foot-5, slid because of his size. But the ultra-productive back ranked highly to scouts so this pick is certainly not short on value (I hate myself for that pun). The Dallas Cowboys need another running back on the roster and he has clear value on the team.

Grade: B

The Dallas Cowboys select WR Jalen Brooks with the 244th pick

Brooks, 6-foot-1, 201 pounds , is a receiver with inside/outside flexibility. But the reason he was drafted likely had more to do with his special teams ability. Brooks is an accomplished special teams player who could claim a gunner spot right out of the gate.

In the final round he doesn’t have an extensive scouting report, lofty expectations and there aren’t many other alternatives.

Grade: 70

Dallas Cowboys final grade: 78.6 (C+)

As we said earlier, all of these players could be excellent pros. This grading isn’t about predicting how good they’ll be – we leave that to scouting reports.

What this does is measure the things we can fairly assess today (explained on Page 1).