We like to say that we don't want to get ahead of ourselves after just two games, but we absolutely do want to. So let's indulge that desire, shall we?
The Cowboys have been historically dominant through the first two weeks of the NFL season, and I'm here to tell you they should be considered favorites to win Super Bowl 58.
That's not just firing a hot take from the hip either, there are plenty of numbers that back it up. Here are 5 key stats that prove the Cowboys are the Super Bowl favorites.
Proof the Cowboys Will Win Super Bowl 58
1. Point Differential
After blowing out both New York teams to start the season, the Cowboys have a point differential of +60, or +30.0 per game. Whichever angle you look at it, that's obviously the top in the NFL and also on pace to be a historic rate.
The best regular season point differential in NFL history was the 2007 New England Patriots' +315. The Cowboys are on pace for +510 through two games. It's obviously not the same mark they'll keep up all season, but that does showcase just how absurdly dominant they've been.
Since 2000 there have been eight teams to finish a regular season with a point differential of +200 or better. Those 8 teams all won at least 12 games, with four of them winning 14 or more.
A first-round bye is more valuable than ever now that only one team per conference gets one, and the Cowboys' point differential points to the kind of regular season record that should lock up that bye.
2. Pass Rush Dominance
Getting after the opposing quarterback is more valuable than ever in the NFL right now, and the Cowboys have been scary good at doing it.
They absolutely dominated the Jets' offensive line last week, and the scariest part is that they did it while almost never blitzing.
This might be the most alarming aspect from the #Jets loss to the #Cowboys: Dallas got those sacks (3), hits (5) and pressures (53.3% of drop backs) without even blitzing.
— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) September 18, 2023
The Cowboys blitzed five times — that's it — against #NYJ, per NextGen. pic.twitter.com/5MCfaZP7Q7
Rushing the passer effectively or having a sound coverage scheme in behind is usually an either-or proposition for defensive coordinators. They have to weigh whether it's worth risking getting burned in coverage to send extra pass rushers.
Dan Quinn has needed to make no such gamble.
Micah Parsons has been an absolute menace with 3.0 sacks and 6 more QB hits so far this season, Osa Odighizua has added 3.0 sacks and 4 QB hits, and Dorace Armstrong Jr., DeMarcus Lawrence and Chauncey Golston have combined for 4.0 sacks and 4 more QB hits.
It takes a blend of great scheming from Quinn and great talent from the Cowboys' linemen to get this kind of pressure, and they're both upholding their end of the equation. Quinn is getting creative with stunts and effective alignments, and the Dallas rushers are dominating any blockers that line up across from them.
When your line is getting after the quarterback like that there's simply no need to start bringing extra pressure from the second level, and that makes it almost impossible for opposing offenses to execute their gameplan.
If they keep extra blockers in to help stop the Dallas rush, they have no chance of getting receivers open when it means running only three of four routes against seven defenders in coverage.
If you can't run your offense, you're not going to get very far in an NFL game.
3. Scoring Rate & Field Position
If you're just trying to look at yards or touchdowns, the Dallas offense isn't nearly as impressive as you might expect for a team that has scored 70 points through two games. But that's because the defense and special teams are making things so easy on the offense.
The Cowboys have an average starting field position of their own 35.6 yard line — which is the best in the NFL. Nobody else has an average at even the 35.0, and only 12 teams even have an average of their own 30 or better.
Dak Prescott and company have also been absurdly good at taking advantage of this scoring position. Dallas has come away with points on 57.1% of their drives. When they touch the ball, the O is scoring points more often than not. That is not normal.
The league average so far in 2023 is to score on 37.8% of your drives, and in 2022 the best rate in the NFL was the Kansas City Chiefs’ 46.4% (while the league average was 36.2%).
Of course, this speaks to more than just the strength of the offense. The defense is getting stops and turnovers. The special teams is pinning opponents deep and maximizing our field position (as well as converting field goals). And the offense is taking care of the rest at an absurdly efficient rate.
4. Turnovers
There's a reason that winning the turnover battle is a top priority for just about every coach in the NFL — few things are as crucial to winning an NFL game as securing the ball on offense and taking it away from the opponent when you're on defense.
Nobody has done that as well as Dallas so far.
The Cowboys have yet to turn it over through the first two weeks of the season — which is something only four other teams in the NFL can still say.
But you know what none of those other four teams have done? None of them are focring opponents to turn the ball over at anywhere near as high a rate as Dallas is.
The Cowboys have forced turnovers on a silly 30.4% of opponents' drives, while only allowing points on 8.4% of the drives against them.
You know how many other defenses have a higher rate of turnovers than of scoring drives against?
Zero.
No team has performed better than the Cowboys on either side of the ball when it comes to turnovers, and that's probably what Mike McCarthy is most pleased about with his team's showing so far.
5. Opponents' Passing Efficiency
This one has elements of the pass rush and the turnovers factored in, but it's well worth focusing on this stat specifically.
"Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt" (ANY/A) is a bit of a mouthful, but it's basically a metric that builds on "yards per attempt" to make it more meaningful. It adds weighting for touchdowns and interceptions into the equation while also taking away yardage for sacks.
The league average for ANY/A is 5.8 so far in 2023, which is right in line with the 2022 average of 5.9. The lowest average any defense allowed last year was the Philadelphia Eagles' 4.4.
The Cowboys in 2023 so far? Just a 0.1 ANY/A against. Every time a Cowboys opponent has thrown the ball it's been worth just 0.1 yards. You might as well just line up in the single-wing offense and run the ball on every play at that point. Or just start taking a knee on every snap, because you're never going to win an NFL game with 0.1 ANY/A.
Ready to back the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl? Or maybe just looking to get down some action on another potential blowout in Week 3 against the Arizona Cardinals? You'll want the $350 bonus from DraftKings Sportsbook then. Just sign up through the exclusive Sport DFW link, then your $5 bet on the game will guarantee you (it doesn't matter if your bet wins or loses) a full $200 bonus plus up to $150 in no-sweat bets. There's no better way to guarantee you cash in on the Cowboys, so unlock your $350 now before the offer expires!