Do The Cowboys Draft a QB In The First Round

Apr 26, 2013; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell speaks before the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

Okay – so we are all trying to figure out what is going on with Tony Romo. As of right now all we know is he has a herniated disc and had a shot this morning. If he is unable to play that means Kyle Orton is the starting QB and with the signing of Jon Kitna we have  a backup. While this impacts the game this Sunday, we won’t be covering that today. After speaking with a ton (literally – I think they would measure out that way) of Cowboys fans and hearing that the Cowboys need to draft a QB in the first round this upcoming draft, it has caused me to slow the craziness down a little here.

First, let’s make something really clear, we don’t know how bad Romo is injured or his season/career status. Regardless, it has been a long time coming that we need to groom his backup. While there have been shouts for Manziel, Petty, Fales, and a few other potential first rounders mentioned, I am not so sure a first round draft pick needs to be thrown at a quality QB.

This led me on a quest (think Sir Galahad and the Holy Grail).  What exactly is the success rate of QBs in the league, and mostly first round QBs?  What I found was actually quite interesting. While we all know the stories of JeMarcus Russel, Tim Tebow and Matt Leinart in recent years, there have been legendary failures as well. I found that first round QBs are a 50/50 shot. There is a higher success rate if they are either groomed or do not start the first game of their first season.   We need to be picky and  get a QB that has the ability to make all of the NFL throws and has at least some mobility.  More than likely,  our candidate like most, will come from a NCAA Div 1 school. We need to find an early round QB that has for some reason dropped in ranking or displays has early round talent but is missing the visibility.  Then, we Romo-groom him.

Looking at this draft there will most likely be 9 QBs taken in the first round this year as per scouts.com, and the success rate on those 9 is that 4-5 will be starting quality QBs. Looking at the Cowboys there is a lot this team needs to address, and I think most fans can agree a majority of them are on defense. Taking our first round pick to get a QB will sacrifice the critical needs on such a historically bad defense.

A few weeks ago I posted my first draft picks and in the 7th round had Kenny Guiton from Ohio State. Not many people noticed it or asked about it. My thinking was Kenny Guiton is one of those guys, played for a big school, is a great teammate, was considered a leader, can make all of the throws, and has really good mobility. The problem with Guiton is he is was the backup to Braxton Miller. It wasn’t until Miller went out with an injury that anyone even realized Guiton was a really good QB. Because his resume isn’t very big he will drop to, at the best, 6th round.  A candidate like Guiton will recognizethe opportunity he is being given – driving up his desire to perform and learn.  Groom a guy like that for a year or two and you have the recipe for a pretty good QB. Now I am not saying I am stuck on Guiton, I am saying a guy like him will provide value in a draft where so many other needs trump the need for a backup QB.

So, beloved Cowboy fans, slow down a little on needing a first round QB. I am not doubting the need for a QB, in fact I am saying we needed to start grooming one two years ago. However, here we are, looking down the barrel of Kyle Orton’s arm wondering if we can get Tanney back from the Browns.

After completing my quest, I’ve come to the conclusion that we need to shake off the belief that first round QB’s are the magic bullet, and travel a road that may be a little rockier but has a better statistical chance  of leading us to the holy grail. I want a better return than 50/50 on a 1st round investment.

Topics: Dallas Cowboys, NFL Draft Preview

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  • Earl Robertson

    Cowboys will never pick a QB first round as long as they have Romo. What they should have done was not sign him and see how it work out this year. But I know they did it because it was suppose to help with the cap. I like romo he isn’t the problem I just wouldn’t want to have that much money invested in a 33 year old qb that hasn’t won anything which isn’t his fault but jones fault. They could have let romo go and had a couple bad years so they could draft high. That is why cowboys been average for so long because jones does enough to keep them average instead of blowing things up and then getting really good fast as Niners Seahawks and Colts have done. But even if they it that way as long as jones had final say

    • Earl Robertson

      As long as jones has final say it doesn’t matter where they are drafting

    • n0ble

      It has been time to get a young backup, but it seems they never hold onto anyone. I like Romo as well, I would rather have him than most QBs in the league. As for rebuilding, Jerry follows the patchwork plug and play models and uses the draft to get 1 or 2 needs than best available. Smart scouting and good drafting can really help a team get better

  • Moby Dick

    I am an Eagles fan, and watching this enigmatic Cowboys team from a different–call it a bird’s eye view–I can say without a doubt that the Cowboys have the potential to win it all. They need health, good CB play, and a new coaching staff. As for the draft, two major concerns I see: (1) LB, need some help there, and (2) a new GM. JJ should fire himself in that role.

    • n0ble

      Growing up in Philly I can tell you I know the Eagles better than any other Cowboys fan, but it gave me the ability to step back and look from the outside as well….by the way I have always been a Cowboys fan. You are kind of off on the LB thing, maybe one, but DL is a huge need for us. As for JJ…don’t get most of us started lol.

      • schatzi

        Hey genius, I STILL live in Philly and I’m a Cowboys fan. What makes you think you know the Iggles better? Get real. (rolls eyes)

  • Jimmy DeMarco

    I commented about Romo’s situation on another article. I had the same surgery Romo will eventually have. & I can tell you, he will never be the same player again.
    1 wrong hit, a wrong turn or pivot & he’s done.
    My rehab was going great. My surgery was October 17th. Leg strength was almost completely back, my range of motion was getting there & I wasn’t using my Walker. December 11th, my daughter turned 2. She came running towards me I braced myself & as she ran into me, I learned forward to avoid getting hit, and I was done. I’m back to square one now. Can’t walk 4 feet without having to use my Walker again, can’t put my own socks or shoes on and any sign of rain or bad weather, forget it, I’m like a board and the pain elevates immediately. I did all the procedures that Romo is doing now. Had 2 cortisone shots, did intense PT for years and I had nerve cell stimulus, nothing worked.
    This injury for Romo, isn’t just about Sunday night. This is long-term issue for him that will effect him later in life.

    And as for Dallas drafting a qb in the 1st round, no way. We need to draft defense first. At least draft defensive players with our 1st 2 picks, probably even first 3. There is a lot of depth at qb this year. Dallas can get a good qb in the later rounds.
    I do agree that they need to draft a qb, but not right away.

    • n0ble

      Yup, I had spinal surgery myself (I hit the side of a plane in mid air). I know the recovery and it is not fun. I hope you are doing better. As for defensive players in the first 2 rounds I said that a few articles ago. I don’t think I will deviate much from that in later articles, maybe, but I don’t think so.

      • Jimmy DeMarco

        Thanks. I hope you are too.
        The recovery is rough. And I have 4 girls, all under the age of 6. So it’s been a tough go keeping my 2 middle ones, 2 & 3 at bay.

        I just think this team absolutely needs defensive players early. Impact players who can make a difference right away. And this draft is so deep at just about every position, it’s a must that Jerry gets this one right.
        It’s probably the most important draft in years for us.

  • JoeDaBeast

    If Garrett is replaced by someone that actually has some balls, then that coach can assist in making better personnel selections (like bringing in 41 year old Kitna from a school classroom).

  • Charlie Anderson

    Why a FBSQB? Romo’s fromE.Illinois So why Not another FCS QB..Mychoice:Brian Bell, Sam Houston State. Holds All Time Passing records at Sam. LedBearkats to the FCSFinals in 2011& 2012.,6’2″195.I hope he is invited to a Day at Valley Ranch.

    • n0ble

      I am not always against an FCS, If you go that route you have to make sure they are an NFL style QB and have decent time to develop them. They haven’t played a lot of quality players and will need more time to adjust IMHO.

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