The Dez Bryant Contract Hang-up

Dez Bryant is one of the very best players in the NFL today, but while he negotiates a long-term deal with the Dallas Cowboys, one must ask, “How long will he be worth it?” And that’s the hang-up…

Free agent receiver, Dez Bryant, is among the best in the game and, not surprisingly, wants to be paid like it. Who can blame him? Dez has been among the league’s leaders in virtually every positional category. TD’s, yardage, receptions, YAC, broken tackles, etc…

When called upon to return punts, Dez is one of the most feared returners in the game as well. He is a strong possession receiver, deep threat, screen option, and goal line target. Even when he’s not catching the ball he’s making a difference by pulling coverage and attention from opposing defenses.

One can say (and I have repeatedly), this offense just doesn’t work sans Dez Bryant. Terrance Williams is a nice little #2 but he’s far from ever becoming a #1. Cole Beasley is a nifty slot guy but it remains to be seen if he can play the X and Z receiver spots.

The running game has been the catalyst of the offense but in order for them to see the success their seeing, they need a guy like Dez Bryant pulling double-coverage or the running game isn’t going very far.

Dez simply makes it all happen, and the Dallas Cowboys know this. Then why can’t they agree on a long-term deal?Because what Dez is worth now, is not what he’ll be worth tomorrow.

They know Dez will be worth it the first few years, but they also know he won’t be worth it the last few years.

Dez Bryant is the physical prime of his career. For a player who plays as physically as Dez Bryant does, this is very important. Dez’s great advantage in this game is his physical dominance. Without having blazing speed, Dez finds a way to get separation and position despite double (and sometimes triple) coverage.

When Dez loses his physical edge, who knows what will be left?

And that’s what the Cowboys are worried about.

Dez is looking for a long-term deal in the 6 year range. The deal should put him alongside Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald in guaranteed money and annual salary. Thinking Dez would accept anything less is absurd.

The Cowboys have no problem playing Dez Bryant this year and next year. In fact, they would probably be willing to pay him a third year at top-3 money as well, it’s the subsequent years that are the issue.

The problem is the impending production falloff, and the soon-to-be flooded marketplace. Receivers, like RBs, have a documented production falloff around the age of 30. They don’t suddenly become worthless, but they are far less dynamic than they once were.

This shouldn’t be surprising given the physical nature and athletic demands of the position. RBs, LBs, WRs, and DBs all fade in effectiveness around age 30. As a result, giving long-term contracts to players in these positions becomes a risky investment.

Big-bodied targets can usually sustain a career into their 30s as possession receivers. That’s an important role but is it $15M a year important? Likewise, fast receivers inevitably lose their speed and physical receivers become more prone to injury. It happens to the best of them and it happens to all of them.

This type of inevitability is only crippling if a franchise is paying the has-been force, top dollar for not-so-top performance. That is what the Cowboys face with Dez Bryant who will turn 26 this season.

There’s no doubt, Dez Bryant will be a beast this season. Next season too. Dez can probably be a pretty good force for 3 or maybe 4 years. It’s the later years and backend of the deal that’s concerning to the Cowboys. Dez wants guaranteed money throughout and a $100M+ price tag. That’s tough to swallow.

If the Cowboys can get him to agree to a deal that only guarantees something in the $35M range to be paid in the first 3 years, they’d probably jump on it. The total deal could look like 7yrs/$110M for all they care, they just don’t want to be left holding the bag when the inevitable slippage happens.

Dez Bryant is aware the marketplace for game-breaking WRs is about to be flooded as well. Multiple WRs will be demanding megadeals the next two years and all of them have arguments to warrant these deals. The 2014 draft class was one of the best WR classes in recent memory, and many feel this season’s rookie class could be just as strong.

It’s not unreasonable to think, in 3 years, Dez will no longer be a top-10 WR in the NFL. Do you want to pay a receiver top 3 money if he’s only producing like a top 15 player? That’s what the Cowboys face. They know Dez will be worth it the first few years but they also know he won’t be worth it the last few years.

I fully expect the Cowboys to come out with an 11^th hour offer that will be competitive enough to make Dez the #3 paid receiver in the NFL. I also expect some dummy years with back-loaded pay on the tail end.

Will that be enough for Dez Bryant or is he looking for more guaranteed money in the later years? Time will tell, but for now, the back-end is the hang-up on this contract situation.

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