The Miami Heat and their super team template have shown that bringing Deron Williams or Dwight Howard to Dallas Mavericks will be a failure.
Last offseason, the Dallas Mavericks let Tyson Chandler, the emotional heart and soul of the team (along with Jason Terry) leave and go to the Knicks.
While both his current and former teams fell out of the playoffs in the first round (to the two best teams in their respective conferences,) both demonstrated a trend spanning the whole league that partially caused the lockout: super teams.
The Mavericks presumably let Chandler leave in attempt to sign either Deron Williams or Dwight Howard next offseason, taking the risk that neither would sign with Dallas. Ironically, no matter what Williams or Howard do, the Mavericks are in trouble: at best they’re a less talented version of the Heat; and in a doomsday scenario, they end up an inferior version of the Knicks.
Considering that the Heat are being manhandled by the Pacers (built like the 2011 Mavericks) and the Knicks were obliterated by the Heat, that doesn’t bode well for the Mavericks or other super teams altogether. As of now, the latter option seems more likely, and if anything, the Knicks actually would have the advantage.
Talented, multi-faceted point guard? Check (though Deron Williams blows Jeremy Lin out of the water.) Soft big man? Check. Excellent perimeter defender? Check. In many ways, the two teams are comparable, but the Knicks have the advantage in two key areas: 6th man and Center. (Carmelo Anthony is better than Shawn Marion, but in a one-on-one match up, Melo would be lucky to score 17, hence Small Forward isn’t included.)
With Jason Terry leaving, either Rodrigue Beaubois or Vince Carter will become 6th man, and neither compares with JR Smith. And obviously, there’s a reason Brendon Haywood was a backup in 2011-Tyson Chandler is just a better player.
While the two teams would rarely play each other, the point of the exercise was to show that even with Deron Williams, the Knicks, the same team destroyed in the vastly easier Eastern Conference, are still better. But say the Mavericks get both Williams and Howard the year after.
They likely split a series with the Knicks (Tyson Chandler manhandled Dwight Howard this year) and lose out to the Heat in the finals, assuming they got past the even more talented Thunder. Essentially, they are sacrificing two of their team leaders and years of chemistry for either a head case all-world center or the best point guard in the game, but for what? Realistically, neither Deron Williams nor Dwight Howard will come (34 year old power forwards and a distracting owner rarely signal a free agent haven) and even if they do, the salary cap is shot.
If one of them comes on a 15 million a year contract (unlikely but maybe Cuban, despite the previously discussed deficiencies, somehow convinces Williams or Howard to sign under value) the Mavericks have a grand total of… $849,723 of total cap room.
Throw in a 2.5 million dollar mid-level exception (because they are under the cap) and a 1 million dollar or so bi-annual exception leaves them with a little over 4 million dollars to work with before they have to start signing nobodies for the veteran minimum. Basically, that’s a run of the mill free agent and no one else, enough to give them an okay front eight and nothing else, surprisingly similar to the Heat.If anyone gets injured, their season is done-like the Heat.
Basically, Deron-Dirk or Deron-Dirk-Dwight still make a lesser version of the Heat or a slightly lesser (or better with Dwight) version of the Knicks. It’s obvious that the super team in Dallas isn’t going to work, and now it’s time for the Dallas to build a right team way. Ironically, that’s the same way the two decidedly non-super teams are built-through depth and chemistry, like the Mavericks of old.