The Dallas Cowboys lost plenty of games last season that they could, and probably should, have won. Jason Garrett’s play-calling was blamed for the losses to the NY Jets, New England Patriots, and Detroit Lions. His clock management was condemned as the reason for the losses to the Arizona Cardinals and NY Giants. Rob Ryan and the defense have also taken a lot of the blame for some of the losses. That aside, many ‘analysts’ and pundits have tried to hold Jason Garrett directly responsible for many of the losses in 2011. The notion, as ridiculous as it is, that Jerry Jones may fire Garrett if the Cowboys fail to make a serious playoff tun in 2012 is getting a fair amount of play in both the mainstream media and Cowboy blogs.
One of my favorite posts was a recent article arguing that Garrett should be fired so that Rob Ryan could be the HC!
There is even a page on a social networking site dedicated to getting Garrett fired.
When you read these stories suggesting that 2012 is crucial to Garrett’s future and the like, keep in mind that these sports ‘journalists’ need to fabricate the appearance of some kind of controversy in order to attract readers.
Whether the fans and bloggers like it or not, Garrett’s job is NOT in any jeopardy, and there are at least 5 good reasons why.
1. Jerry Jones will have patience with Jason Garrett. Everyone knows that the only thing in the country bigger than Texas is Jerry Jone’s ego. Garrett is Jerry’s boy. Remember, Jones seriously considered making Garrett the Head Coach a few years ago before he hired Wade Phillips. Jerry has been grooming Garrett for this job for years; he is not going to give up on him after 2 mediocre seasons, especially when one was affected by the lockout.
Jerry has publicly backed, championed, endorsed, supported, and done just about everything but bow down and worship Garrett since he named him HC. (Go back and watch the press conference where he introduced Garrett if you think I am overstating things.)
Jones hates to admit he has made a mistake. Think about how long it took him to get rid of Roy Williams and Wade Phillips. This is not to suggest that making Garrett the HC was a mistake, but if it was, there is no way Jones gives up on him after only 2 full seasons.
Jerry gets euphoric about the idea of making history. He desperately wants Garrett to be the first person to ever win a Super Bowl ring as a player and a Coach for the same team. Garrett would have to do something horrendous before Jones will give up on him that quickly.
2. In all of the recent interviews of Jerry Jones on the topic of Garrett’s future, it was a mere five words that seemed the most important. He said,
"“We are just getting started.”"
It is difficult to overstate the significance of that one little comment. Is it possible that Jerry Jones has finally come to the realization that the early legendary greatness he achieved with this team in the 90’s is not nearly as easy to duplicate as he originally thought and hoped? Many believe that he has seen the errors of his ways (granted, not enough to relieve himself as the GM). Jerry Jones appears to finally understand that sustained success in the NFL requires continuity in coaches, philosophy, and systems.
Jerry is painfully aware of the following facts:
The franchise had two coaches in its first 34 seasons, which resulted in 20 consecutive winning seasons and five Super Bowl victories; Jerry has had six different HC’s since Jimmy Johnson left in 1993. No HC has lasted more than four seasons. The Cowboys are 119-118 since 1997.
Jerry Jones is a lot of things, but he is not stupid; he knows damn well that the teams that are perennially successful like the Patriots and Steelers have stability in the coaching staffs.
Jerry wants Garrett to be the next Tom Landry. I think that Jones believes that Garrett IS the next Landry. And when you think about it, Garrett has many of the same qualities as Landry. To enumerate just a few: they both played QB. Landry earned a Master’s degree from the University of Texas; Garrett went to Princeton. Like Landry, Garrett is young, and this is his first job as a HC. He is considered super intelligent by everyone who interacts with him. He is supremely professional. He almost always wears his poker-face. He is not prone to emotional outbursts in public. He is obsessively methodical about his work. He also seems detached and aloof. He will rarely give you a quote or comment that is going to make headlines. Perhaps most importantly, Jason Garrett doesn’t seem to need, or care about, who gets the credit in the eyes of the public.
3. This team is 13-11 since Garrett took over last November, and eight or nine of the losses occurred in games the Cowboys led in the fourth quarter. The pessimists will look at the close losses as proof that Garrett is doing something wrong. The optimists will tell you that Garrett is coming up just short, and that with time and a few small tweaks, this team will start to win those games.
Regardless of your perspective, it is impossible to deny that Garrett took a team that was 1-7 last year in 2010 and made them competitive in almost every game since he was placed at the helm of this franchise; only 3 of the games last year were not close. Garrett’s leadership, direction, and coaching has given them a chance to win in 20 of the 24 games he has been the HC.
Eight of the losses under Garrett have been by a total of 27 points; that is less than 4 points a game.
Has it been frustrating to watch them lose so many close games that we all think they should have been able to win? Of course, wouldn’t you rather see them lose a close game and think there are some positive things to continue building on, rather than watch them get beat convincingly?
If nothing else, Garrett has made the Cowboys relevant again. He has given the Cowboy Nation reason to hope, even if that hope leans more towards the future than this season. Jerry Jones knows that relevance and hope are easily converted into ticket and merchandise revenue, to say nothing of the multitude of others ways an improved product can generate money.
Garrett has done a decent job so far: Jerry knows that Garrett finally has this ship sailing in the right direction; he is not going to pull the plug before Garrett has had an opportunity to dock.
4. Garrett was essentially a rookie HC in 2011; Jerry had to have known that there would be some gaffes as Jason acclimated himself to being a HC. Anyone with half a brain had to expect that there would be some growing pains when you have a first time HC. As with any rookie, at any job, you also have to assume that he will improve as he gets experience. Garrett’s start has not been terrible, but he will get better.
When trying to gauge the amount of improvement that can be reasonably expected from an individual in their job performance, it is prudent to look at three things. The first is aptitude (the ability to learn) and intelligence (the ability to understand and reason). Everything that I have ever heard suggests that Garrett has both these qualities in abundance. The second is motivation. Again, all reports suggest that Jason wants to succeed; furthermore, many observers have commented that Garrett’s intense motivation has inspired the players to improve themselves. The third is dedication. Jason Garrett loves being a part of the Dallas Cowboys; this is his dream job. He appears to ooze dedication and motivation.
All relevant indicators suggest that he should improve drastically in a relatively short period of time.
5. This is still a work-in-progress. Remember, many of the players are still leftovers from Parcells and/or Phillips. Garrett’s system and philosophy should be easier to sell to the young players that he brings in than the veterans who may already be set in their ways. Garrett has only had the benefit of overseeing 2 drafts (both improvements on the drafts in the previous years). Garrett didn’t even have the luxury of a full off-season to implement his system. Similarly, they attempted to install a radically new defense without the advantage of a proper training camp and mini-camps.
They had 3 new starters on the OL to start the season; two of them (Tyron Smith and Bill Nagy) were rookies, and the other (Phil Costa) had never started an NFL game before. The offense is was in the top 10 in the NFL in total yards; they are averaged over 23 points a game (only 4 teams averaged more than 26). Some would argue that those totals are pretty damn impressive when only two of your five OL had ever played in the NFL before.
In short, Garrett is just getting started. It will take time to change the culture at Valley Ranch and fully implement the ‘Jason Garrett Way’. He needs more of the RKG’s (right kind of guy), and that will take time, but the Jason Garrett Effect is slowly taking over Valley Ranch.
Jason Garrett is not going anywhere in the near future. This fact should give the Cowboy Nation cause for optimism about the future of this franchise.
When thinking about points 3 and 5 (the need for continuity and this still being a work-in-progress) it is hard not to think that the exact same arguments and principles could be applied to Rob Ryan, but that is an issue best left for another day.
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