Should the Dallas Cowboys be More Active in Free Agency?
By Reid Hanson
The Dallas Cowboys have been deathly quiet early in this free agency period but sometimes the moves you don’t make are the best moves of all.
Contrary to popular belief outside of Cowboys Nation, the Dallas Cowboys are NOT big spenders in free agency. Anyone who follows the Cowboys knows that they’ve changed their tune over the years and do not aim to make the Big Splash anymore.
The Dallas Cowboys are free agent bargain hunters choosing to dole out big contracts to their own players rather than hunt outside players. Occasionally the Cowboys will stray from this strategy and bring in big ticket items like Brandon Carr and Terrell Owens but they serve as exceptions to the rule as well as painful reminders.
As expected, the Dallas Cowboys have been quiet early this free agent period. At the time of this article’s penning, only DT Cedric Thornton (signed to a modest 4-year deal worth $16M) represents their outside spending.
Rolando McClain and Josh Thomas have been re-signed but they’re internal free agent so they really don’t even count. Watching the top free agents go to competing teams may be painful to watch but history tells us it’s the moves you don’t make that make all the difference.
Just last month I was playing blackjack in Deadwood, SD on may annual guy’s trip. I was dealt a 14 with the dealer showing six (so you assume 16). Normally I would hit on 14 but since the dealer has to hit on soft 16s and below, she stood a good chance of busting.
For better or for worse – right or wrong – the Dallas Cowboys just aren’t big free agent spenders.
I sat tight and prayed for her to draw a big card. Two others at the table were not quite as passive as me and ended up hitting and busting. Wouldn’t you know it, the dealer drew a Jack and busted, paying out to every un-busted player at the table.
The reason for the tale is simple: I knew there were plenty of big cards left in the shoe. I knew she had to hit in a very bust-prone situation (holding a 16). And because of that, I knew it’s the move I didn’t make that would likely yield the results I wanted.
Successful NFL teams play free agency this way as well. Free agents are free agents for a reason. Their previous team is probably letting them go for a reason and that reason is usually layered in some degree of risk they were unwilling to assume.
Fox Sports’ Warren Sharp recently wrote an article about this very topic saying “winning free agency is a myth.” More often than not, the most active teams at free agency continue to struggle while the teams who dip in the more subtle are the ones seeing the best results.
The 2013 and 2015 Miami Dolphins, the 2014 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 2015 New York Jets, the 2015 Jacksonville Jaguars were all dubbed “free agency winners”, yet all of them struggled to compete. Jacksonville and Miami are continuing their spending ways this season, already inking players to over $100M in only the first couple days of free agency.
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The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts are examples of big spending and big results but behind them the examples are few and far between. Teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers, and Seattle Seahawks are among the stingiest in free agency but they are also some of the most consistently successful franchises.
The Dallas Cowboys rank with them in free agency spending but sadly have yet to see the consistent success. In fact, the Cowboys are in the league’s bottom quarter in spending (and dead even in wins and losses) striking down their perception of free-spending irresponsibility.
For better or for worse – right or wrong – the Dallas Cowboys just aren’t big free agent spenders.
Maybe the Cowboys Should be Big Spenders…
But perhaps the Dallas Cowboys’ fiscal responsibility isn’t responsible at all. Perhaps it’s irresponsible to undervalue outside help and overvalue their own roster. Perhaps it’s irresponsible to overestimate the window on Tony Romo.
Something that must be pointed out is that free agent spending compared to win-loss record is probably more about correlation than it is causation. If you have a successful and talented team you theoretically have less need for upgrades so you consequently spend less.
If you’re a toilet team with plenty of room for improvement then upgrades can be found everywhere on your roster so free agency is an obvious solution.
At the end of the day it’s all about getting value. The teams with the most players playing at or above their pay grade are the teams that win the most. Overpaying is an act of desperation (see also Houston Texans signing of Brock Oswieler) yet the Cowboys seem to be resisting the urge.
Perhaps the Cowboys should be more desperate…
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Every time this year I get excited about the possibilities of free agency and every year I’m quietly disappointed when it’s their NFC East rivals making all the noise. The stats say it’s all about the moves you don’t make and in the right situation I agree – but restraint may not be the right move in the Cowboys current situation. What say you?