Cowboys Chat: Dak Prescott Expectations “Through the Roof”

May 6, 2016; Irving, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) during rookie minicamp at Dallas Cowboys headquarters at Valley Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
May 6, 2016; Irving, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) during rookie minicamp at Dallas Cowboys headquarters at Valley Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports /

In this Cowboys Chat, we look at the QB position and whether the Cowboys did the right thing by passing on Paxton Lynch.

In Part 3 of 4, we look at the latest Cowboys Chat with Reid and discuss Paxton Lynch, Dak Prescott, and Tony Romo:

If the Cowboys were willing to use a high draft pick to redshirt Jaylon Smith, why didn’t they just pay the extra pick to get Paxton Lynch?

Because using the 2nd and 3rd for Paxton Lynch would have left them only a fourth round pick to address the defensive line. History says that fourth rounders don’t statistically pan out and that’s something the Cowboys couldn’t afford to do given the need on the defensive line.

One may argue that Jaylon Smith was a pick the Cowboys couldn’t afford to do either, and I think that argument has merit, but I’d take Jaylon Smith over Paxton Lynch (and the extra lost pick) any day. If I’m drafting a first round QB he’s starting year 2 at the latest. If I’m doing a slow groom, then I’ll wait until the mid-rounds to get a QB.

So, did you like Paxton Lynch before the draft?

No. And a little yes. I mean, we all like his tangibles. He’s big, athletic, and strong. But the questions we all have, happen to be some biggies.

In a QB, I value three things above all:

  1. Accuracy
  2. Ability to read coverages (pre and post snap)
  3. Ability to move through progressions.

Paxton Lynch is accurate but I’m not so sure about the other two. His tangibles are great but I’ll take a QB with those three qualities over a big, athletic guy any day of the week.

If Lynch had fallen to the Cowboys in the second round, I would have rolled the dice on his immense potential, but I wouldn’t trade up for a player that has so much to learn and so much to prove.

Does Dak Prescott have those three qualities?

I’m not sure he does, but for a fourth rounder, I’m happy to give him a try. He’s certainly not as accurate as Lynch but he seems to be able to read complex and skilled coverages. The investment is low, his tangibles are strong and his intangibles are through the roof.I ‘m a big fan of low-risk high-reward investments.

Do you think Dak Prescott will have a better career than Paxton Lynch?

No. Lynch is in a far better situation in Denver for starters. Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler rated as a couple of the worst QBs in the NFL last year, yet the team won the Super Bowl anyway. The receiver position is loaded and the defense is still extremely dominant. Brandon Weeden could probably win in Denver. Ok, that may be stretching it, but you get my point.

What are your expectations for Prescott?

I’m so excited the Cowboys finally drafted a QB, my expectations are through the roof. I know, statistically he’s a longshot, but since I know the Cowboys are unlikely to draft anyone else anytime soon, and his only legitimate competition is Kellen Moore, I like his odds at one day being the starter.

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Let me add this — If the Cowboys are willing to alter their offense around Prescott’s skills then I think he has a chance. If they want to just plug him into Tony Romo’s version of the Air Coryell offense, then I think he’s doomed to fail.

Hopefully Jason Garrett learned his lessons from last season and will choose the former option rather than the latter.

Let me add, I am concerned with his accuracy more than anything.

You can change technique and fundamentals but you can’t teach accuracy. I saw Prescott miss some short and routine passes in college and I imagine I’ll see the same in the NFL.

The good news is Russell Wilson also missed simple short passes his entire college and pro career, yet he took a huge step in his development last season and looks like he may be the kind of guy that can carry a team and not just drive the bus. That is my hope for Dak Prescott. It’s lofty and clearly not statistically likely given his draft position, but it’s the ceiling I see.

Wait. So you do or don’t like Russell Wilson?

I thought he was severely overrated when he won the Super Bowl and he’s severely underrated today. He’s not elite like Brady, Rodgers, and Brees but he’s the very next tier in my book.

How many years are left for Tony Romo and will Dak Prescott play in 2016.

I do think Prescott will play this season. I’d place the over/under at 1.5 games for him but reserve the right to change that after watching the preseason.

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As for Romo, I’m going to judge him year-to-year. I give him an over/under this season of 13 games played. If he plays over that, I think he probably has 2 additional seasons in him. If he plays less than 13 games, then I think he will probably make 2017 his last season.