Dallas Cowboys: Is a 2017 slump a misguided prediction?

The Dallas Cowboys may not have the same level of regular season success as last year but here’s why predicting a slump is probably misguided.

Looking around the interwebs this offseason, it seems many in the national media are predicting a significant regression for the Dallas Cowboys this coming season. After posting a staggering 13-3 record in 2016, regression to the mean is a statistical likelihood. But how much is too much and is the national media misguided in their downgrades?

Following the draft the Dallas Cowboys were given an over/under of 9.5 wins. It’s hard to understand how the Cowboys would drop to a less-than 10-win team after dominating the NFL last season. I think people forget exactly how good the Cowboys were last season…

How Good Were the 2016 Dallas Cowboys?

In 2016 the Dallas Cowboys found a way to beat every single team they faced, except the New York Giants. Let that sink in. In fact, the 13-3 record is deceiving because Dallas effectively threw away the meaningless season finale against the Philadelphia Eagles.

I’m not going out on a limb to say the Cowboys really were a 14-2 team (best in franchise history) built on still-developing youth and devoid of gimmicks. Critics say the Cowboys won’t sneak up on anyone in 2017. Recently CBS Sports Jason La Canfora has the Cowboys missing the playoffs entirely. He had this to say about the Cowboys.

"“I smell a sophomore slump. No longer having Tony Romo as an emergency blanket could change some things here. How much does Jason Witten have left? Can Dez stay healthy? I just sort of sense a market correction of sorts here and I’m not sure they can duplicate the kind of roll they went on a year ago.”"

I hate to give press to people clearly aiming to agitate a fanbase but let’s break down Jason’s reasons for for a slump. First, Tony Romo was only a viable backup option at the end of the season, so I’m not sure what kind of safety blanket he was. The Cowboys didn’t operate more recklessly with him in uniform and kept Dak Prescott runs down to a minimum all season long.

Anyone who’s seen Jason Witten play should know his “tank” has nothing to do with his success. Jason Witten no longer relies on speed or athleticism to make plays. It’s intelligence, technique, and savvy. He finds soft spots and uses his body to shield defenders. Wit is not a worry and mentioning him is grasping at straws.

Dez Bryant’s health is always a concern but Dak Prescott has found a way to win without Dez before, so there’s no reason he can’t do it again. If you remember, Dez missed three games in 2017 and the Cowboys won all three in convincing fashion. And that includes a 30-16 beat-down of the Packers.

Dak

More from Dallas Cowboys

The film is out on Dak Prescott and he’s going to have to take the next step in his development because teams were already adjusting to his game at the end of last season. But as mentioned in the paragraph above, there is nothing gimmicky about the Dallas Cowboys offense. With the exception of that Detroit Lions game where Dez Bryant threw a touchdown pass to Jason Witten, the Dallas Cowboys have a fairly predictable offense.

While they are predictable on offense, they are also dominant. And that’s what makes their success sustainable.

Even the defense is fairly generic.

Rod Marinelli doesn’t dial up many exotic schemes and generally sticks to a nickel or 4-3 personnel package throughout the game. Blitzes are a minimum and coverages are restricted largely to the usual suspects.

"“I’ve never bought into their defense, and after losing seemingly their entire secondary in free agency, color me concerned once more,” La Canfora said. “Is there a pass-rush? Will they have to win shootouts each week?”"

Let’s be clear, the Dallas Cowboys did not lose their secondary. They let them go. It would have been nice to retain Barry Church but that’s about it. The Cowboys saw these players as completely replaceable and it appears that’s exactly what happened this offseason. I’d even argue they upgraded across the board.

The pass-rush is always going to be a concern – until, of course, the Cowboys prove they can win on the edge against some of the better tackles the NFL has to offer. But did things change for the worse in 2017? Certainly not. All indications say the Dallas Cowboys’ pass-rush improved for the better.

The best rushers on the team are still developing and the recent addition of 1^st round pick, Taco Charlton, only helps matters. The Cowboys don’t appear to be significantly upgraded, but they aren’t downgraded either.

Many in the national media are misguided in their 2017 predictions for the Dallas Cowboys. The reasons often cited for the sudden slump are so glaringly clueless.

Next: This weapon could put the Cowboys offense over the top

It’s going to be difficult for the Dallas Cowboys to repeat their success from 2016 but that’s inevitable when you essentially post the best record in the NFL. Say they regress because of that. You can even say it’s because of the specific schedule they face. But if you cite Tony Romo, Jason Witten, or the churn in the secondary as reasons for the decline, you clearly haven’t been paying attention.

Home/Dallas Cowboys