Texas Rangers should cautiously buy at the trade deadline
With the all-star break behind us now, it’s time to focus on what the Texas Rangers will do at the non-waiver trade deadline, and here’s why they should still go shopping.
For the Texas Rangers, the 2017 season has been a roller coaster. It started out rough, with a really strong May and then June was pretty calm. But now as the baseball market starts to get interesting, general manager Jon Daniels and his team will begin making tough decisions about this season. Considering all that has happened and where the Rangers are, they should start window shopping now and strike when the time is right.
The standings
At this point, it’s become pretty clear that the Houston Astros will take the AL West title this year. They can have it. They’ve earned it and frankly, this Rangers team might not know what to do with it if they did get it. With two straight first round exits in recent history, maybe they don’t need it right now. But a playoff spot is still within reach and would be huge for this team thanks to the wild card.
Despite a losing record at the all-star break of 43-45, the Texas Rangers still sit just three games out of the second wild card. They do have four teams sitting in front of them, but these aren’t exactly the 1939 Yankees before them. They have the Rays, Twins, Royals and Angels separating them from the playoffs right now, and Texas can take them all down.
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First, the Rangers will face Kansas City for three games right out of the gate beginning Friday evening. Don’t forget either that Texas swept a four game set from them at the end of April. They’ll also play Minnesota four more times and Los Angeles/Anaheim/Southern California 10 more times before season’s end.
This gives them ample opportunities to make up ground on all of them and even surpass them. So at this point, the “number of teams in front of them” argument doesn’t hold too much water. The Rangers still control their own destiny.
The bullpen
When the topic of the Rangers and underperformance come up, most will immediately point to the bullpen. Why not? They’ve been responsible for most of this team’s biggest losses.
Through the first 88 games this season, the bullpen has blown 17 saves out of 30 opportunities. Really think about that. The other 29 MLB teams have averaged a 65.4% save percentage. Meanwhile, Texas ranks dead-last at 43.3%. That means the Rangers theoretically have a better chance of winning the ballgame when they’re behind than when they’re ahead after five innings. No lead has been safe with this bullpen.
But if they converted just the league average of their 30 save opportunities, then suddenly the Rangers would have 6 1/2 more wins this season. To err on the conservative side of things, let’s go with six.
This would suddenly give the Rangers a healthy 49-39 record, placing them first in the AL Wild Card race. They would sit three games ahead of the New York Yankees, who currently hold that spot. Texas would still trail Houston, but only by 10 1/2 instead of 16 1/2.
Don’t forget the 2015 season, too. While most remember the Rangers getting Cole Hamels before the trade deadline, some forget that Sam Dyson came in then, too. Regardless of this season, he was monumental in that 2015 playoff race surge. Getting someone like him for the late innings would bolster this team like nothing else and give them the chance they need.
The candidates
Their best bets come from a pair of lefties in Justin Wilson of the Tigers or Brad Hand of the Phillies. Both offer club control for at least next season while Hand has a second year after that before free agency hits in 2020. Each has pitched well this year in the late innings and having them beyond this season brings an added bonus, making them “smart” buys for Texas.
If they want to go more of the “rental” route, they should look at Pat Neshek of the Phillies. They’re way out of contention for any playoff slot at all, and he’s been light-out. He has a 1.27 ERA and a .906 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings this season with Philadelphia. Putting him in for the seventh or eighth inning would inject some much-needed life into the bullpen and the Globe Life crowds. However, this is a contract year for Neshek, so keeping him next year may not happen.
From purely a “youth” standpoint, they could look more toward a guy like Reds pitcher Raisel Iglesias. He can’t enter free agency until 2022 and is a youthful 27 years old. Considering his 1.69 ERA and .914 WHIP, Cincinnati may demand more than the Rangers are willing to part with for him, though. But having someone like him with another five years of team control could anchor the Texas bullpen.
Next: Rangers shouldn't sell off Darvish
As it stands, the Rangers are just a couple of pieces away from taking a playoff spot. This doesn’t mean they should go out selling off farm pieces like they’re on a shopping spree. But a few wise additions without giving away too much could mean big things for this season and the future. No matter what, it will be fun to see how it all unfolds.