How the Dallas Cowboys must overcome their known unknowns.

The Dallas Cowboys have to overcome this major known unknown if they want to have a successful 2018 campaign.

The 2018 season is nearly upon us and Dallas Cowboys fans couldn’t be more excited. Whether you’re a pessimist that thinks the team is on the wrong track, or an optimist that’s convinced good things are ahead, “unknowns” are upping the intrigue factor this year.

No matter how confident you may be on your outlook, the reality is we just don’t know. And while this could be said about any team during any season, it’s never been truer today for some specific parts of the Dallas Cowboys.

Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld once famously offered this:

"“There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”"

This somewhat infamous quote applies to more than just national defense. It applies to our daily lives, business, and even our favorite sports franchises. Everywhere in our lives we deal with things we know, things we’ve identified that we don’t know, and things we don’t know that we never even saw coming.

Known Knowns

Known knowns are good things. Good or bad, really, these are all about awareness and the basis towards most decision making. Luckily for us, on the Dallas Cowboys there are a lot of known knowns. We know the running game is going to be force to be reckoned with. We know the pass rush is going to be downright beastly. We know the linebacker corps is the deepest it’s been in recent memory. And we even know (with a varying degree of confidence) the secondary is going to take a big step forward – with or without a certain safety from the Pacific Northwest.

Good NFL teams have a lot of known knowns so this needs to be seen as a good sign to Dallas Cowboys fans. Not many teams can boast this level of confidence across so many avenues of the roster.

Unknown Unknowns

Again, these are issues you never saw coming. It’s hard to really list these since the category’s title is aptly named – meaning if we mention it, then it’s not a unknown unknown but rather a known unknown. How the Cowboys deal with injuries, how Dak Prescott bounces back, how Xavier Woods plays are all known issues. And that’s really what we must overcome this season – those pesky known unknowns.

Known Unknowns

While some may point to field goal kicking as the biggest known unknown now that Dan Bailey is gone, I’m more concerned about something else. The passing game.

The entire passing game is one big known unknown and that’s a pretty big obstacle to overcome. But there is reason for optimism…

The Dallas Cowboys passing game is something unknown to everyone. From fans, to players, to coaches, we aren’t sure of what to expect on Sunday. Top receiving targets Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are gone. Both the receiving corps and the tight end unit have undergone massive renovations.

Preseason, devoid of actual defensive scheming and scouting, is a poor indicator of success. How these receiving targets perform when the games count is a mystery to us all. Whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist, you’re really just speculating at this point. Sure, you can say that about any position group during any given season, but the level of unknown surrounding the passing game this season is on an entirely different level.

For as good as Dak Prescott has been, he’s not without questions himself. If it was Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers playing with this cast of unknown characters, we would probably feel a little more secure regarding the passing game. This is certainly no indictment on Dak, either. I have all the respect in the world for Dallas’ franchise arm, but I’m not blind to the fact there are questions and this season will be pivotal in his career arch.

The entire passing game is one big known unknown and that’s a pretty big obstacle to overcome. But there is reason for optimism…

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Dak Prescott has given us a glimpse of what life will be like. Prescott has quarterbacked three games without #88 on the field. In those games he completed 71 percent of his passes for 719 yards, six touchdowns, and only one interception. Granted he did have Jason Witten at his disposal and as per Sean Martin at Cowboys Wire, sans Dez, Prescott targeted Witt 1.3 times more per game. But the fact remains, Prescott offered tangible proof he can survive without a clear No. 1 option on the roster.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge replacing Witten is going to be an impossible task. But as I wrote before training camp even began, the role of tight end today will not be what it was like yesterday. In other words, they aren’t trying to replace Witten, but they are going to rebrand the tight end role into something else.

Replacing Witten in the passing game isn’t just going to pass-catcher Blake Jarwin (TE2), but it will be a collection of Tavon Austin, Ezekiel Elliott, and Rod Smith.

So while I feel optimistic about the passing game this season, I also acknowledge it’s an undeniable known unknown and very far from a sure thing (for both the optimists and pessimists among us).

Overcoming the known unknowns are going to be key to this season for the Dallas Cowboys and the passing game hasn’t been this unknown for over a decade.

• Published on 09/04/2018 at 12:18 PM
• Last updated at 09/04/2018 at 12:18 PM