Can the Dallas Mavericks finish second in the Southwest Division?

The Dallas Mavericks have a lot of optimism heading into the 2018-2019 NBA regular season. Dennis Smith Jr and Luka Doncic are leading the youth movement, DeAndre Jordan and Harrison Barnes are providing leadership in the locker room, and Dirk Nowitzki is back for another year.

So what is the ceiling for this season’s Mavs squad?

Let’s take a look at just how realistic of a chance the Dallas Mavericks have at finishing second in the Southwest Division.

Houston

We’ve got to be honest here: Dallas doesn’t have a chance coming close to surpassing Houston in the Southwest Division – no one does. James Harden is back to defend his MVP title. Even with the losses of Trevor Ariza, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute and Ryan Anderson, the Rockets appear locked into the second seed in the West behind Golden State.

Chance to finish higher than Houston: 0%

San Antonio

The Spurs are in a period of turnover. Gone are the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, and Kyle Anderson. However, mid-range king DeMar DeRozan is in town and has already been working well with Gregg Popovich. If San Antonio made the playoffs last season without Leonard, imagine what they can do with a healthy DeRozan.

There’s no way Dallas can out-perform the Spurs this year, right?

Well…the injury bug might say otherwise. You don’t like to see anyone go down with a long-term injury, even if it’s on a rival team. Unfortunately, the Spurs have been hit with multiple setbacks.

First-round pick Lonnie Walker went down with a torn meniscus during a preseason game and is expected to miss six to eight weeks. Then, just days later, starting point guard Dejounte Murray suffered a torn ACL. Murray will likely miss the entire season.

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How far can Popovich lead his team in an absolutely loaded Western Conference? It might not be too far-fetched to say that you need 50 wins to make the postseason. Can San Antonio do that with all the holes in their roster?

The Mavericks will likely win somewhere around 34-38 games this season, but there is a chance that the lineup gels quickly and Carlisle pumps out close to a .500 record. The Spurs looked like a 50-win team without the recent losses. Now, I’m not so sure they can win 40-45.

Chance to finish higher than San Antonio: 20%

New Orleans

Anthony Davis put together a monster 2017-18 campaign, finishing third in both the MVP and DPOY race. DeMarcus Cousins is gone, as well as Rajon Rondo, but the roster isn’t in shambles.

The addition of budding star Julius Randle will help boost the frontcourt alongside Davis and Nikola Mirotic. Elfrid Payton fills a bit of the hole that Rondo left. Jrue Holiday is coming off a very successful season and might be the perfect compliment to AD.

The Pelicans won 48 games last year – good enough for a one-game lead on the 7th and 8th seeds in the playoffs. Can Davis and co. replicate that success in 2018-19? It will be very hard, given that the West is so strong this season.

New Orleans will likely hover around the 38-45 win range, and the low end is definitely close to the Mavericks’ ceiling. It is possible that the Dallas Mavericks can at least come close to passing Alvin Gentry’s squad in wins.

Chance to finish higher than New Orleans: 35%

Memphis

The Grizzlies only won 22 games last year, but are looking to bounce back in 2018-19. Injuries played a huge part in the mediocrity, and Memphis has to hope they can avoid them this time around.

Mike Conley is back, but don’t expect the exact same production he has dished out for the past several years; Conley is 31 and coming off of a season-ending foot injury. Marc Gasol is a year older. The addition of Kyle Anderson certainly helps.

How much can Chandler Parsons contribute? The aging wing has one of the worst contracts in the NBA, and injuries have kept him sidelined for the past few seasons. If he can give Memphis around 25 minutes each game, that could go a long way…don’t trust that, though.

Fourth-overall draft selection Jaren Jackson Jr can be a key rotation piece. Fellow rookie Jevon Carter has the skill set to bring back the grit-and-grind mentality that Memphis was known for during the Tony Allen era.

Ultimately, the Grizzlies will take a step forward from a disastrous 2017-18 season but still have a long way to go. Expect around 30-35 wins. Dallas can certainly finish with a better record.

Chance to finish higher than Memphis: 75%

Final Analysis

The Dallas Mavericks have the tools to push for the 9th or 10th seed in the West. Making the playoffs as the 8th seed is not completely out of the question, either. However, there are so many contending teams in the Western Conference that Dallas might find themselves toward the bottom of the “fringe playoff-tier” group.

In a competitive Southwest Division, Dallas has an uphill climb to get past the Spurs and Pelicans. But we’ve already seen San Antonio suffer from the injury bug, and we don’t know how New Orleans will perform without their playoff weapon in Rajon Rondo.

Next. Dallas Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki coming off the bench in what could be his final season. dark

In a best-case scenario: Dennis Smith takes a big step forward in his development, Doncic puts together a ROY season, Jordan brings back the interior defense that has been gone since Tyson Chandler’s first stint in Dallas, and the Dallas Mavericks narrowly steal the second-place spot in the Southwest over San Antonio and New Orleans.

Published on 10/12/2018 at 20:00 PM
Last updated at 10/12/2018 at 04:29 AM

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Dallas Mavericks: is runner-up in the Southwest Division realistic?

By Jason Lippert | Oct 12, 2018