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Dallas Mavericks: What’s realistic, playoffs or a top-5 pick?

By Reid Hanson

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 30: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks reacts after fouling during the fourth quarter of the game against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on January 30, 2019 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 30: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks reacts after fouling during the fourth quarter of the game against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on January 30, 2019 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /
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As the Dallas Mavericks embark on their final 25 games of the 2018-19 season we ask if the playoffs are even realistic or should they just tank?

Last summer the Dallas Mavericks flipped a switch from win-later to win-now when they traded up for the unproven Luka Doncic. In the acquisition they promised a mildly-protected 2019 first round pick to Atlanta – the caveat being Dallas gets to keep the pick if it ends up being in the top-5 (ATL would then get 2020’s pick).

As you may have noticed, opportunity presented itself just before the NBA Trade Deadline and when the Mavs were given an opportunity to add a young super star to pair with Luka for the foreseeable future, Dallas did what needed to be done to make it happen.

The primary consequence of such a bold move is the cupboards are now bare for the final stretch of this season. Kristaps Porzingis is sitting out, and the four starters not named “Luka” are playing elsewhere. So as the win-now Dallas Mavericks fall further and further down the standings, the obvious question to ask is should we tank?

Now Mark Cuban and the Dallas Mavericks have been down this road before. That’s why we have the fortune of having Doncic in the first place. But after a finger wag and some heavy fines, an admission of tanking shouldn’t be expected.

But before we can even ask about tanking, we really need to first assess the Dallas Mavericks chances of making the postseason. Because the two are clearly related.

ESPN has developed a thing called Basketball Power Index (or BPI). It assess and rates a team’s offense and defense and, looking forward on the schedule, compares it with future opponents. Players, locations, distance traveled, back-to-backs, and more are all factored into the equation. The result gives us some pretty intelligent playoff odds.

What do they predict for the 26-31 Dallas Mavericks?

ESPN expects Dallas will finish 33-44, which would be third from last in the West. More importantly, they give the Mavs a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs, indicating they may be more likely to snag Zion Williamson than they are at getting that last seed in the West.

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This leads us to the conclusion, tanking, at the least, makes some sense. For integrity’s sake, you never want to give less than full effort. This applies to players, as well as coaches who decide how to use said players. But experimenting with some lineups in order to assess and develop are also part of coaching. So if winning doesn’t seem like a very likely outcome, perhaps assessing and developing is worth losing for since it’s a goal the Mavs can actually accomplish.

This next week or so will say a lot about what options the Dallas Mavericks even have. They’re six games behind the eighth seeded Clippers and will need things to swing significantly to overtake them this deep into the season.

As long as we’re talking odds, though, the Dallas Mavericks are also unlikely to score one of those top-5 spots in the draft. There are eight teams worse than the Mavs and five of them are significantly worse than the Mavs.

The sad truth is the Dallas Mavericks are unlikely to make the playoffs and also unlikely to get a top-5 pick in the draft (meaning Atlanta gets their lottery pick). There’s simply no great solution to this situation.

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The Dallas Mavericks have a less than two percent at making the postseason this year. Sadly they’re also long-shots to finish in the bottom five, meaning they should do whatever’s best for the growth and development of the team because tanking isn’t much of a better option than pressing on.

  • Published on 02/19/2019 at 18:01 PM
  • Last updated at 02/19/2019 at 15:15 PM
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