Dallas Mavericks at ideal position down the stretch

The Dallas Mavericks are in as good of a position as they could have hoped for at this point in the season and have the best odds realistically possible to keep their draft pick

The Dallas Mavericks couldn’t have hoped for a better situation at this point in the season. No, they aren’t in position to make the playoffs. They’re in position to keep their first round draft pick.

With the sixth worst record in the NBA, this is about as low in the standings (and as high in the lottery odds) as anyone could have imagined a few weeks ago. In fact, the odds of the Dallas Mavericks keeping their pick are better today than they’ve ever been. And when looking at the standings, it’s unlikely those odds will ever get better.

When the season started, goals were significantly different than they are today. This team started in a true win-now situation. As you’ll recall, the Dallas Mavericks traded their 2019 first round pick to the Atlanta Hawks in order to get Luka Doncic.

The pick is top-5 protected, meaning Atlanta gets it unless the Mavs stink bad enough to be awarded a top-5 selection. That seemed unlikely at the start of the season when Dallas appeared to be a viable postseason contender.

Everything changed when Dallas was given the opportunity to add Kristaps Porzingis. Unfortunately Kristaps was going to be unavailable the rest of the season and getting him required trading away three of the Mavs starters.

Suddenly the Mavs were no longer in win-now because winning now wasn’t a realistic possibility. The only option for the team was to do everything they could to win later. After salary dumping their fourth starter, Harrison Barnes, it was clear the quickest way to the top would be through the bottom.

After getting fined for admitting to tanking last season, it should be no surprise the organization has vehemently denied any such behavior this season. But it doesn’t take a fortune teller to read the tea leaves on this one. Winning was no longer the Dallas Mavericks top focus this season and if they happen to secure a pick in the top-5, then all the better for the cause.

More from Dallas Mavericks

• The Dallas Mavericks accomplished a lot on Draft Day
• Mavericks pairing Luka Doncic and Draymond Green a technical (foul) disaster
• Can the Mavericks steal Deandre Ayton from cap-strapped Suns?
• Dallas Mavericks: Top-5 options for the Mavs to explore in the NBA Draft
• Dallas Mavericks can’t keep pick No. 10 in the NBA Draft

According to tankathon, the Dallas Mavericks have a 37.2 percent chance at keeping their pick and a 9 percent chance of even getting the top pick (aka Zion Williamson). How good are those odds? The bottom-3 teams in the NBA all have 52.1% chances of getting a top-4 pick, the 4th worst team has a 48% chance, and the fifth worst team has a 42.1% chance. In fact, the worst team in the NBA (the Knicks, of course) only have a 5% better chance at Zion than the Mavs have.

Looking at the standings it’s clear this is about as good as it gets for the Mavs. Atlanta sits above them in the lottery odds and they’re 4.5 games ahead/behind the Mavs in the standings – meaning it would be almost impossible for the Mavs to pass them in the tankathon race.

This is as good as it gets. And while the Dallas Mavericks are still statistically unlikely to keep their pick in the draft, it’s at least a distinct possibility. And for those dreaming of Zion, he’s undeniably a long-shot, but he’s still a shot.

Write about the Mavs and join our team at Sport DFW!

We don’t know how the season will ultimately end and what the ping pong balls will bring for Dallas, but right now, the Dallas Mavericks couldn’t have hoped for a better situation post-Kristaps, making this coming summer a very exciting time for MFFLs.

• Published on 03/13/2019 at 11:01 AM
• Last updated at 03/13/2019 at 10:55 AM