Todd Gurley is a cautionary tale for the Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliott

Todd Gurley’s current situation should be considered by the Dallas Cowboys as they negotiate the treacherous waters of Ezekiel Elliott’s next deal.

Franchise running backs have come under attack in recent seasons. Not only has the analytics community downgraded the importance of the position, but teams themselves have found most of the production is easily replaceable – even on the elite level. It should be no wonder teams like the Dallas Cowboys are having trouble crafting extensions for their offensive bell cows.

The Los Angeles Rams were recently in a similar situation with their franchise back, Todd Gurley. And after signing him to a record extension, the Rams find themselves with tremendous buyer’s remorse. While their current situation is considerably different from that of the Dallas Cowboys, it should serve as a cautionary tale.

After signing a mammoth 4-year $57.5 million contract extension last year, things have not gone well for Todd Gurley. A knee condition threatens his effectiveness and appears to be rendering him no more than a part-time ball carrier for the rest of his young career. A shared workload may be common for running back rotations in today’s NFL, but Gurley was re-signed to be the bell cow. His enormous salary now threatens to financially cripple the franchise in the near future.

Is vulnerable to suspension better than vulnerable to injury?

Gurley’s situation illustrates the problem with re-signing running backs to large extensions. Not only was his production easily replaced last postseason by C.J. Anderson, but the overall fragility of the position was exposed.

Along with linebacker, running back is considered to be the most violent position on the football field. While all positions can say they are just one hit away from a career-ending injury, the quality and quantity of these high impact situations are unparalleled at the running back position.

That’s one reason why it’s risky handing over a mega deal to a running back. Something like what happened to Gurley and the Rams isn’t really all that surprising.

Is vulnerable to suspension better than vulnerable to injury?

Now, many people will point to Gurley’s injury history as a reason his risk is different from someone like Ezekiel Elliott’s. Zeke has been one of the stoutest and healthiest running backs in the league. Despite his massive workload, Zeke has been an iron man for Dallas. He hasn’t missed much time aside from an unsavory suspension in 2017.

But that suspension can’t be overlooked. Not only has Zeke found himself in a handful of off-field controversies, but he’s also been slapped with a pretty big suspension with a very unforgiving second strike policy. Under the terms of his suspension, anything resembling a domestic violence violation can be met with indefinite suspension. Considering the controversial nature of his first suspension, it won’t take much more than a believable accusation to give Roger Goodell all he needs to hand down a banishment.

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So Zeke is already facing the risks associated with the running back position. Plus, he’s also carrying a bigger workload than any other bell cow in the league. But he’s also at the risk of a significant suspension at a moment’s notice. And his history of questionable decision-making certainly isn’t inspiring a ton of confidence around Cowboys Nation.

Add in the overall replaceablity of the position* and you have a lot of reasons to be wary about handing out a shiny new contract.

Note: Obviously Zeke’s total production cannot be replaced by any old “joe” off the street. But PFF did find a significant portion of production (more than most other positions) is replaceable by low-dollar options. So it’s not overly surprising an off-the-street free agent replaced a RB like Gurley, but it would be shocking if a street free agent replaced someone like Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr. That’s because RBs are just more replaceable than other positions. Even elite ones.

Adam Schein at NFL.com recently named Zeke one of the NFL’s most indispensable players (a list that excludes QBs). And for good reason. Zeke’s a beast. Preserving him for the post season is essential to the Dallas Cowboys success in 2019.

Dallas can’t afford to run him into the ground like they’ve been doing. Just because Zeke can be a bell cow, doesn’t mean he should. A smaller workload like Gurley’s may be the wise thing to do. But if he reduces his carries by 20 percent, is he still worth paying like a lone wolf bell cow?

That’s what the Dallas Cowboys must answer. Zeke wants to be the highest paid RB in the NFL and he probably deserves it based on his skill set and his previous workload. But Gurley must serve as a cautionary tale as to all the bad things that can come from paying such a tenuous position (and a high-risk human) such a significant portion of the cap.

We can’t ignore the risk of extending Ezekiel Elliott. Just because he’s not injury prone, doesn’t mean he doesn’t have his own special risk. My take – pay the man but be sure it has plenty of exits in it so Dallas isn’t locked into him longer than two years at a time. He’s too dang risky for too many reasons.

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