Dallas Cowboys: Atrocious play selection proves the definition of insanity

If there’s one glaring culprit in the Dallas Cowboys loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night, it’s the coaching staff’s inexcusable play selection.

They say doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. Technically, that’s not the real definition, but the point is well made. If you’ve tested something over and over and repeatedly failed to achieve your desired result, it’s madness for you to continue the same course of action and suddenly expect success.

But this is exactly what the Dallas Cowboys did on Sunday Night Football against the Minnesota Vikings. And just when we thought they had it all figured out, they go back to their insane ways and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. We discuss…

If we’re being completely honest, Dallas Cowboys football has been maddening for quite a while now. Slow starts, suspect play-calling, and poor clock management have consistently put this team in early holes. The coaching staff has a track record of letting this team down, and while execution can also share blame, a level of execution failure is unavoidable in sports and it’s the coaching element that’s most correctable (and the most to blame).

Definition of Insanity

While many people will point to the Dallas Cowboys final big drive (ignoring the Hail Mary drive) as the primary indictment upon the coaching staff, the reality is it was the whole game that was the problem. We’ve spoken at length at how first downs shape the entire series in a sort of trickle-down-effect.

1st down runs actually HURT the offense on 79 percent of the their series’. That meant roughly 80% of the time Dak Prescott was essentially handed the ball and asked to lead a scoring drive with one less down to work from

By taking a macro look at the play-charting numbers of the NFL, we know when a play was “successful” or “unsuccessful”. While context (time, field position, etc…) ultimately decides, generally speaking if a first down play gains over 4-yards then the play is successful and under 4-yards it’s deemed unsuccessful. That’s why passing is such a preferred method of attack on first down, because, on average, the running game falls short in yards per attempt, expected points, and success rate. And it’s not even close.

Sunday night was no different. On 1st down the illogically persistent Dallas Cowboys ran the ball 16 times for 39 yards to the tune of 2.44 yards per carry. By my count only three of those could have been deemed “successful” (all numbers suspect to change as NFL play-charting becomes available).

In other words, on first downs the Dallas Cowboys’ running game only had a 21 percent success rate and actually HURT the offense on 79 percent of the their series’. This negative EPA made scoring on the drive less likely than before the play even took place. That meant roughly 80% of the time Dak Prescott was essentially handed the ball and asked to lead a scoring drive with one less down to work from. Frankly, it’s amazing he was able to even keep the team in the game given those circumstances.

#FeedZeke threshold loss: a game in which the Cowboys margin of loss is more than accounted for by the total negative EPA on Zeke carries or targets, which in this case was -7.4
— Cowboys Stats & Graphics (@CowboysStats) November 11, 2019

In fact, Ezekiel Elliott was so ineffective he finished with an EPA of -7.4. Again, this tells us he actually cost the Dallas Cowboys points on the day. As Cowboys Stats & Graphics points out, he more than made up for the margin of defeat.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott, who will probably spring to the top the Total QBR rankings after last night’s performance, was +24 in EPA and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt on first down passes (again, compared to the running game’s 2.44 YPC).

It’s not just foolish to obtusely stick to the run on first downs, but it’s nothing short of insane. Even if it would have suddenly worked (which the laws of averages say it will from time to time), historical facts tell us the odds are tremendously against it.

The Final Drive

Throughout the Jason Garrett era we’ve seen the Dallas Cowboys play not to lose for 3.5 quarters only to abandon the game plan at the very end and lean on the quarterback and passing game. And that’s basically what happened on Sunday. Down four with four minutes left to play, Dallas finally tried “playing to win”. Instead of feeding Zeke up the gut, Dallas threw the ball. And what do you know – They found success.