The Dallas Cowboys should have re-signed Dak and Amari – not Zeke

If one thing has been made clear the first portion of the season, it’s that the Dallas Cowboys should have re-signed Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper before Ezekiel Elliott.

The Dallas Cowboys entered the 2019 offseason with roughly one metric crap ton of contract issues to deal with. DeMarcus Lawrence was a free agent. Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, La’el Collins, and Maliek Collins were all entering the last years on their respective deals. And cornerstones, Jaylon Smith and Ezekiel Elliott, who were still under team control for two more seasons, were eager to talk extensions.

The Dallas Cowboys front office (particularly Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones) had a lot to deal with – and it wasn’t just about prioritizing. It was about value, urgency, and common ground. It’s the first and last element that got deals done for Jaylon and La’el. And it’s that second one that forced them to deal with Zeke before they really wanted to (and before they should have).

Urgency

A mentor of mine once said, “If you don’t have urgency at your office, you need to find a way to create it.” Incentives are nice, and usually pretty effective. But a touch of fear and a dash of panic have a way of bringing out top effort in people. Zeke and his agent must have taken this advice.

Elliott wanted a new deal but being under team control for two more seasons, there was no urgency to get it done – Especially not when the front office had bigger fish to fry (I.e. Amari and Dak). So Zeke created the urgency. He held out.

Many of us (both fans and media) regarded the 2019 Dallas Cowboys roster as the most talented since the mid-90’s. The window was truly as open as can be. But Zeke threw a wrench in that. His holdout was the turd in the punch bowl that threatened to ruin the entire season. Jerry and Stephen had no choice but to re-invest before they really needed to. They didn’t want to risk screwing up the season.

Investing in elite running backs is just a poor allocation of resources. Yet, the Dallas Cowboys did anyways. And they did it before they needed to, at a time when Dak and Amari’s contracts still sat unresolved.

At a time when they should have been focusing all resources on their franchise “arm” and franchise “hands”, they ponied up market setting dollars for their running back. THEIR RUNNING BACK! Not only was this not needed given his contract status (Zeke was under contract and had no tangible leverage), but it was at a position in which the quality of player typically provides limited variance in production (in other words: good offensive lines create good running games and actual running back talent makes little to no difference).

An example of this is LA’s mammoth win over Dallas in the playoffs last season. Todd Gurley, widely regarded as one of the best in the NFL and possibly even “generational”, was nursing injury and street free agent C.J. Anderson was forced to carry the bulk of the load. All C.J. did was run for 123 yards and utterly destroy Dallas’ defense.

I know, I know, anecdotal evidence is the argument of fools. Every time it snows in May my neighbor proclaims it as scientific proof regarding climate change. But macro studies have told us C.J. Anderson’s success last January is not outside of the norm. And great running games produce great runners – not the other way around.

Passing games, on the other hand, are largely dependent on the personnel. No player impacts a game more than the QB. That’s why you see the QB position drafted higher, paid more, and blamed/credited more than any other position.

Teams that fail to find franchise arms typically fail to compete. Sure you can disguise the limitations of pedestrian bus driving QBs but eventually they’ll be exposed (see also Jared Goff). Dak Prescott, on the other hand, has been unleashed and now leads NFL passers is most major categories .

Strong passing games are paramount in today’s NFL. Studies have shown the passing game is twice as likely to influence winning than running. Running-game enthusiasts will point to the link between 100-yard rushing games and winning. But a quick dive into that shows leading the game is what leads to cumulative rushing success – not the other way around.

Studies also show running backs are largely replaceable. If the blocking up front is strong, competent running backs succeed.

You don’t need a highly paid elite back when a street free agent can replace upwards of 90% of their efficiency. Investing in elite running backs is just a poor allocation of resources. Yet, the Dallas Cowboys did anyways. And they did it before they needed to, at a time when Dak and Amari’s contracts still sat unresolved.

How good is Zeke?

This is another topic of great debate. The range of answers goes anywhere from generational to average. Albeit, the generational bandwagon is getting fairly empty as of late. Without top-notch blocking Zeke has struggled to do much of anything. He’s not particularly great at breaking tackles or eluding tacklers. He’s even struggled following blocks this season. The best thing he does is always fall forward but that’s not exactly a “generational” quality.

Thanks to the tracking at Pro Football Focus we know Zeke underachived in EPA last season, given the performance of his offensive line. And grading his ability to break tackles, avoid tackles, and success after breaking tackles, Zeke ranked 35th in the NFL. In yards per route, Zeke was 19th last season and doesn’t look much better this season.

Something I pointed out this past winter is that Zeke was Dallas most ineffective receiving threat and actually finished with a negative EPA. As I said, this is product of how the Dallas Cowboys deploy him and not an indictment on his skill. I encourage you to check it out for a deeper look:

The best thing going for Zeke is that he’s extremely well rounded and has no discernible weakness to his game.

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I fully realize this sounds like pure blasphemy to many in Cowboys Nation who consider Zeke to be the team MVP and top cornerstone. The tribalism is at an all-time high (something I plan to address in Sunday morning’s piece) and many of the people who adore Zeke also happen to despise Dak Prescott and discredit all things analytics.

While I may never be able to fully convince those people how much more important Amari Cooper and Dak Prescott are to this team than Ezekiel Elliott is, hopefully I can reduce the divide by showing how important a passing game is to NFL success these days and how passing success is not nearly as dependent on a running game as we once thought.

Ezekiel Elliott’s deal did not need to get done this past summer yet the Dallas Cowboys re-upped anyway. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper continue to elevate their games during contract years while the running game sinks to a new low. Can we get a re-do?

• Published on 11/15/2019 at 12:01 PM
• Last updated at 11/15/2019 at 10:30 AM