Dallas Cowboys must adapt to stop Patriots’ favorite personnel packages

Based on the Patriots’ personnel usage and play-calling thus far, Dallas Cowboys fans should feel confident in their defense heading into this game

These are not your father’s Patriots. Heck, these aren’t even last year’s Patriots. This year’s edition of the New England franchise has once again morphed into an entirely new animal. And if the Dallas Cowboys want to beat them, they best take note of what this team likes to do.

Without Rob Gronkowski, the Pats are fundamentally different offensively. And since they also lack outside receiver talent to replace tight end production, they are struggling to find their identity. But looking at their preferred personnel packages, we can see what they like to do and what the Dallas Cowboys must do to match-up.

Without creditable pass-catching talent, it stands to reason the Pats would be a rushing team. But even there they’ve struggled offensively. Despite playing against some very suspect defenses this season, New England is only averaging 91 yards per game rushing which translates to just 24th in the league (down nearly 40 yards/game from ’18). And they’re just averaging 3.3 yards/carry (3oth in NFL).

Comparatively, the Dallas Cowboys average 4.6 yards per attempt and over 131 yards per game (both are 7th in the NFL).

New England’s struggles to run efficiently have turned them into a pass-heavy attack. The Pats are 2nd in the NFL in pass attempts per game (40.8 average). The good news is suspect pass protection and uncharacteristic inaccuracy mean they are only averaging 6.6 yards/attempt (18th in the NFL). Again, comparatively speaking Dallas is No. 1 in the NFL at 8.5 yards per attempt.

Preferred personnel groups

Here’s where things get interesting. According to Sharp football Stats, New England only operates out of 11 personnel (3WR sets) 54% of the time. A number that low is unheard of for a pass-heavy offense. They’re in 12 personnel (2TE sets) a league-low 9%. And they’ve only gone to 3TE sets one time all season. From this we can surmise they aren’t very enthralled with their stable of tight ends.

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Where the Pats go heavy is in those two RB sets. Only three teams use 21 personnel more than New England’s 17%. Brady uses his RBs like many Dallas Cowboys fans wish their offense would. They don’t hesitate motioning out of the backfield and lining up as receivers. Since Brady usually doesn’t have time to pass downfield, he uses his RBs as short range options regularly.

New England also leans on 22 personnel (2RB, 2TE) more often than most. Sometimes they are bunched up and sometimes they’re spread out. Their biggest advantage here is deception and  versatility.

What this means for the Dallas Cowboys

For a team like Dallas that leans heavily on their three linebackers Sean Lee, Jaylon Smith, and Leighton Vander Esch, this is a pretty ideal match-up. All three LBs match-up well against TEs and RBs and as long as they play smart and carry their assignments downfield, they should have the advantage.

Yesterday I was calling for more 3-3-5 formations from Dallas, as a way to get more players in the secondary on the field. This understandably leaves them vulnerable to the run but given New England’s troubles running, and propensity to pass, it would put Dallas’ best resources in an area most likely to be attacked.

Based on New England’s offensive personnel packages, it’s safe to say the Dallas Cowboys’ linebackers will be keys to success on Sunday. If those three can win their battles, Tom Brady’s going to struggle getting much of anything done on offense. The real challenge will be Dallas’ offense against that dominant Patriots defense.

• Published on 11/21/2019 at 12:01 PM
• Last updated at 11/21/2019 at 11:46 AM