Are the Dallas Mavericks over reliant on the 3-point shot?

The Dallas Mavericks are currently 4th in the Western Conference. While led by sophomore sensation Luka Doncic and All-Star Kristaps Porzingis, the rest of the team is built to convert a high volume of three-point shots. However, built the way they are, are the Mavericks over reliant on the 3-point shot?

The Dallas Mavericks are on a 4 game win streak. It is hard to dislike how the team has played recently. They pulled out close games showing grit and determination against the defending champion Toronto Raptors and rival San Antonio Spurs, while also blowing out the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. Scoring 140+ points in back to back games is quite the accomplishment.

Each team poses their own challenges and as a result the Mavs were required to win in different ways. Toronto has the 4th best defensive rating in the league, and on a day where the Mavs only shot 22 percent from the 3-point line, it took clutch time free throws to put the game to rest.

The Spurs have the 5th highest offensive rating in the league and are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the league. They are the second best at scoring 2-pt field goals and are 15th in 3-point scoring percentage even though they take the least amount of threes in the league. (As expected as Gregg Poppovich is not a fan of how three-point attempts have changed the game)

And then there are the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers….

No matter the opponent, the Mavs have their structure of playing basketball and it has proven to be successful this far into the season as they have won 10 of 15 games. The team loves to move the ball around and shoot a high volume of threes.

How many you ask? The Mavericks are currently averaging 39.5 3-point attempts per game which is the 4th highest average in the league. However, they are only converting 35.3 percent of their three point shots which is good for 15th, or right at the middle of the league. The Mavericks are averaging 89.2 shot attempts per game, so roughly 44 percent of the Mavericks field goal attempts are 3 point shots. (These percentages are subject to change when the stats from the Cavaliers game is updated)

Conversely, on their 49.7 2-point field goal attempts, they are converting 27.2 of those shots. While the 49.7 attempts is the 2nd lowest in the league, their 2-point field goal percentage, 54.7 percent, is good for 2nd highest in the league.

So with all the discussion of analytics in basketball, it begs the question, should the Mavericks look to shoot more 2-point field goal attempts as opposed to three point field goals? After all they are making them at a significantly higher percentage!

As it currently stand, eight players on the team take as many or more 2 point shots than 3 point shots. Those players are: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Dwight Powell, Justin Jackson, Delon Wright, Boban Marjanovic, Jalen Brunson, and Dorian Finney-Smith. Everyone on this list except for Kristaps Pozingis is converting more than 50 percent of their two point shots. (Porzingis is only converting 43 percent which is a bit lower than his averages in New York)

Of these eight players, Doncic and Porzingis start on a nightly basis while Powell, Wright, Brunson, and Finney-Smith have all had their time on the starting lineup. So where does the actual three point shooting come from?

Luka Doncic is averaging 9.1 3-point attempts per game and Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 6.3 3-point attempts per game. The three next highest averages are from Tim Hardaway Jr, Maxi Kleber, and Seth Curry. Here are all their attempts and percentages.

Luka Doncic: 9.1 Attempts, 33.6%
Kristaps Porzignis: 6.3 Attempts, 35.4%
Tim Hardaway: 5.9 Attempts, 32.9%
Maxi Kleber: 4.6 Attempts, 36.7%
Seth Curry: 3.8 Attempts, 36%

This list is interesting for several reasons. Tim Hardaway Jr, who’s been advertised as a 3-point shooter for most of his career, has clearly not shot like one to open the season. Curry, who has not shot lower than 40% in the last three seasons he’s played is shooting a career low of 36 percent.

Meanwhile, Kleber is playing his best basketball and Porzingis is slowly inching up to his averages from his All-Star season in New York. Doncic is shooting similar to where he ended last year albeit on more attempts.

For a team that is constructed to kill you with the 3-point shot, their best shooters aren’t living up to their potential just yet and their highest volume shooters are better at scoring 2-point field goals. With plenty of games left in the season, there is plenty of time for them to come back strong. However, with how the team currently a bit inconsistent, should the mentality change?

In the last 6 games, the Mavericks gave gone 4-2 losing to the New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics. In those 6 games, here are their shooting splits.

W vs CLE: 38-63 (60.3%) 2-pt / 20-37 (54.1%) 3pt
W vs GSW: 29-51 (56.9%) 2-pt / 22-38 (57.9%) 3pt
W vs SAS: 25-43 (58.1%) 2-pt / 17-41 (41.5%) 3pt
W vs TOR: 28-55 (50.9%) 2-pt / 9-39 (23.1%) 3pt
L vs NYK: 28-53 (52.8%) 2-pt / 8-36 (22.2%) 3pt
L vs BOS: 26-47 (55.3%) 2-pt / 11-42 (26.2%) 3pt

What are the takeaways here? The Mavericks are remarkably consistent when shooting 2-point field goals and see large variance on a nightly basis from their 3-point shooting. In addition, the split between two and three-point field goals on a nightly basis is roughly the same.

The last three games the Mavericks have excelled at shooting the ball from the 3-point line. However, the Mavericks did play some of the worst defensive teams in that span. I suppose that’s a good way for a team to build confidence right?

Knowing the team’s recent form, it makes it more infuriating to see the team lose to teams like Boston and New York. The Mavs lost to Boston by 10 and the Knicks by THREE points, a team that is 20th in defensive rating. The outcomes could have been different if they took some more 2-point field goal attempts. (And also convert more free throws…)

This once again brings up the age-old analytics question, if you aren’t shooting well from a certain place do you keep shooting there?

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With the team dealing with some inconsistency from the three point line, the Mavericks should look to move the ball inside and try to attack the basket more. While the team has played admirably the last three games, they are about to go on a tough four game run against the Houston Rockets, the LA Clippers, the Phoenix Suns, and the LA Lakers.

(Random observation, the Phoenix Suns have been REALLY impressive this year)

These teams will score at will from anywhere on the court. This would be a prime reason to believe the Mavs should look for the best shot available instead of the shot that may garner more points.

The best thing is they have the players to do so. Delon Wright is excellent at scoring near the basket, Dwight Powell is an athletic finisher off the pick and roll, Doncic can score at will, Porzingis is a talented shooter from the elbow, and Boban Marjanovic is a great presence on the interior to catch lobs or post up.

And if their 3-point scoring keeps up, that’s a plus also right?

Next. Dallas Mavericks: Is Hassan Whiteside an option?. dark

Regardless of the inconsistency shooting the ball from three over the last six games, this team has won 10 games and are 4th place in the Western Conference. No matter how the team plays, we continue to watch in excitement of what could happen next. All we know is that when the team is playing at their best, they are extremely fun to watch.

Published on 11/23/2019 at 13:01 PM
Last updated at 11/23/2019 at 10:46 AM

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