Why the Dallas Cowboys can’t afford to abandon play-action anymore
By Reid Hanson
To the detriment of the offense, time and time again the Dallas Cowboys abandon a simple and routine play-fake on passing downs only because they’ve fallen behind on the scoreboard.
Passing is king in the NFL. In a ranking of importance, passing is head and shoulders above running, pass-coverage, run stopping, and special teams. No single part of the game impacts the outcome more than passing. That’s true for the Dallas Cowboys and that’s true for the entire NFL.
So when a simple action added to the process of the pass is proven to increase positive results, you do it, right? Well, the smart teams do. Last season’s Super Bowl teams finished in the top-4 in play-action percentage because studies have shown it positively impacts passing production across the board. It’s a magic passing enhancer.
The Dallas Cowboys (and many others) obviously took notice and now play-action is up in Big D and league-wide. But all too often Kellen Moore and the Dallas Cowboys attack abandon the play-action and stop doing what has been proven to be most helpful, simply because they’ve fallen behind on the score. Contrary to popular belief, play-action works even if you’ve fallen behind.
According to the data, play-action increases completion percentage, Y/A, AY/A, TD percentage, and expected points per dropback, all while decreasing the likelihood of suffering a sack or throwing an interception.
Only in extreme circumstances, and late in games, does the play-action stop yielding positive results. Think about it: Defenders are hard-wired to respond a certain way to certain stimuli. When the quarterback and running back simulate a hand-off, they take notice. Whether that’s a full on “bite” or just a pause in dropping back in coverage, the play-action forces linebackers to stop and think, which inherently helps passing.
Whether it’s 1st-and-10, 2nd-and-9, 3rd and 7, or even 4th-and- 4, defenders respond to play-action. The running game doesn’t even have to be working. That’s right, the whole “establish the run” thing doesn’t really exist. There’s a handful of studies proving it but Football Outsiders’ Ben Baldwin nailed it here.
Yes, dominating on the ground is sure to force extra defenders into the box, but the running game needn’t be working in order to find success with play-action.
Play-action just inherently works.
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The 2019 season started out wonderfully for the Dallas Cowboys. Often playing with a lead, Dallas used the play-action early and often. But as the season went on, Dallas’ schedule got tougher and the Cowboys weren’t always playing with a lead. And the moment they fell into “catch-up mode” they inexplicably abandoned the play-action. Even though the data shows it still works!
Again, players are acting instinctively and only in extreme situations where the win-probability has spun out of control does play-action stop yielding positive results.
According to the data, play-action increases completion percentage, Y/A, AY/A, TD percentage, and expected points per dropback, all while decreasing the likelihood of suffering a sack or throwing an interception.
Next. It's the pass that sets up the run these days in Dallas. dark
It may seem counter-intuitive but the play-action fake works on traditional passing downs, when a team is losing, and even when the running game is struggling. It just works. Why are the Dallas Cowboys abandoning it?
- Published on 12/04/2019 at 12:03 PM
- Last updated at 12/04/2019 at 16:12 PM