Dallas Cowboys: Red Zone Problems Stem From Passing Game

The Dallas Cowboys are in the bottom half of the NFL in red zone efficiency and much of the reason why is the passing game’s inability to be a consistent threat.

Averaging over 432 yards per game, the Dallas Cowboys are the NFL’s top-rated offense. Yet they find themselves at 6-6, in part, because of their inability to cross the goal line. Leaving points on the board all too often, the Cowboys are often asking their defense and special teams to pull extra weight, and as we know, those units have enough trouble pulling their own weight.

With a 54.76% red zone touchdown percentage (as per TeamRankings.com) the Dallas Cowboys are in the bottom half of the NFL. Combined with the team’s problems elsewhere, you can get a pretty good idea why Dallas is struggling to break .500.

The primary causes behind these struggles are multifaceted. But generally speaking, it’s the passing game that’s to blame and if the Cowboys want to correct this overall issue, they’re going to need improvement from the ballistics department.

If you read my work in the past, you’ll know I’ve been an analytics guy for quite a while (and well before it became an accepted thought in Cowboys Nation). As such I’ve long been critical of the running back position and value downfield passing exponentially more than a ball given to a RB behind the line of scrimmage (that applies to hand-offs as well as dump-off passes).

As much as it pains me to say, (as a big-time Dak Prescott supporter and long-time Ezekiel Elliott critic) the numbers suggest the problem in the red zone is Dak Prescott and the passing game and not Zeke and the running game. But hey, when you live by the numbers, you die by the numbers, and right now the numbers (as per Sharp football Stats) suggest Zeke’s doing alright in the red zone and it’s Dak that’s having trouble in this all-important part of the game.

Running the Ball

As a unit, the Dallas Cowboys RBs have had 50 rushing attempts from the red zone and they’ve been successful on 56% of them (28 plays deemed “successful”). They have eight rushing touchdowns from inside the 20 (7 for Zeke and 1 for Pollard), which isn’t great but it qualifies as pretty darn good.

But it’s not just the Dallas RBs finding success on the ground. Dak Prescott, the runner, has 3 TDs on 10 attempts and 60% of those rushes were deemed “successful” by Sharp Sports (put the team in a better chance of scoring).

Dak’s been so good running the ball in the red zone, teams have taken notice. They are now shadowing Dak – especially when the Cowboys go 11 personnel and spread out the defense. Opponents are essentially daring Dak to beat them outside through the air. How’s it working?

WRs in the Red Zone

Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Randall Cobb have combined to collect six total red zone touchdowns this season. Despite never really being great in this portion of the field, Cooper has been quite good. He’s operating at a 63% success rate in the red zone. Sadly he’s only had 8 opportunities.

Gallup has had five red zone plays and has only been successful once (his lone touchdown). Now, you don’t have to actually score to be considered successful in the red zone. As long as you move the ball in a way it positively increases expected points, you’ve been successful. But 80% of Gallup’s were not. Now Cobb has found a little success in that regard. On his seven plays in the red zone, he’s been successful three times. That’s not as good as Coop’s 63% but it’s not as bad as Gallup’s 20% either.

Other Pass-catchers in the Red Zone

Expanding this out to the running backs we see they’re not a whole lot better. Zeke has only been successful 22% of his receiving chances in the redzone while Tony Pollard is a painful 0-for-6.

If there’s any hope to be found, it’s probably in the tight ends. In admittedly few opportunities, Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin has been quite efficient in the red zone. On nine opportunities, Witt has been successful 56% of the time (with 3TDs to boot). Jarwin has only been given two chances but he hit on one of those so he’s batting a cool .500.

How it’s fixed

It stands to reason more red zone opportunities for the TEs mean more success in the red zone. But that’s just what the numbers say. Actual film matters as well. Jason Witten looks dandy on paper but the dude is painful to watch on coaches’ film. Slow in and out of breaks and often unable to separate, Witten isn’t quite the option he used to be.