Texas Rangers: Looking Into the 2020 Win Prediction

The Texas Rangers seem like they are a few moves away from having their roster set for the 2020 season, yet have received a subpar win prediction for the upcoming season.

Per a CBS Sports article, the Texas Rangers are projected to win 79.5 games via William Hill. The number seems quite a bit low, considering that the team won 78 games in 2019, and have gotten considerably better heading into the new season.

In 2019, the Texas Rangers managed to win 78 games, which was actually a surprise to most fans that knew and expected the season to be a rebuilding year.

How close were the Rangers to being a .500 team? Well, Joey Gallo played in 70 games and accumulated a WAR of 3. Had he not missed essentially the entire second half of the season, and played at the same rate, his WAR would have doubled to a 6, which, in theory, means that the team would have won 81 games.

Most of the players that played well for the team in 2019 are returning in 2020, and while there may be some regression by some players, the additions should more than make up for that.

A poll (listed below) by Evan Grant on Twitter shows that Rangers fans seem somewhat confident in the team in 2020, and I’m here to help instill further confidence in fans that the team should be able to improve significantly for the new season.

POLL: Despite not signing a mega dollar FA, I believe Rangers have positioned themselves for incremental improvement as roster stands now. Click on poll to answer: Where do you think Rangers win total falls:
— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) January 30, 2020

Just in calculations, say that regressions and losses drop the teams win total (had no big moves been made) to 74. A full season of Gallo jumps that to at least 76. If Corey Kluber can be at least half of what he was in 2018 (5.9 WAR), then he would jump the win total to 79. Then adding Jordan Lyles and Kyle Gibson will jump the win total to at least 83.

If you think that a win increase of five is too steep, just based on starting pitching, do not forget to take into account some of the pitchers that the Rangers were using over the course of the season, such as Adrian Sampson, Ariel Jurado, Drew Smyly, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, Brock Burke, and Joe Palumbo, all of whom had ERA’s over 5.80. Completing the rotation was a huge move for the Texas Rangers, as they now have a solid 1-5 unit, as well as depth to pair with them.

We still are not done adding wins at just 83… Todd Frazier posted a 2.2 WAR in 2019, and with him manning the hot corner for Texas, he should be able to add two wins after the lack of output Texas had at third in 2019 to bump the total to 85.

Catching was an outright train wreck for the Texas Rangers in 2019. The group that Texas used behind the plate in 2019 accounted for a WAR of -2. Adding Robinson Chirinos should make the catching game have a positive WAR of 2, which would mean that there will hopefully be four wins added with the addition of Chirinos, bumping the win total up to 89.

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In just casually seeing the Texas Rangers being predicted to win 89 games, some may find it laughable. But with the improvements that the team has made heading into the new season, winning 89 games is not nearly as far of a stretch as some would think.

Not only is 89 not very far out of the question, but this team could win over 90, as they can likely benefit (just a little) from the fallout of the Houston Astros punishment, as well as the front office likely not being done making moves, as they still need to fill out their bullpen, and may look to acquire someone to play either center field or first base or both for the club in 2020, which could increase the win total even further.

Next. How the Rangers benefit from Astros' troubles. dark

What do you think? Sound off in the comments below!

Published on 02/03/2020 at 12:01 PM
Last updated at 02/03/2020 at 07:09 AM

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