Dallas Cowboys: Best and worst case for Dak Prescott’s contract

Today we look at the best and worst case scenario for the Dallas Cowboys’ next deal with Dak Prescott – and it has very little to do with annual salary…

Dak Prescott is in the midst of negotiating a new long-term contract with the Dallas Cowboys. With a price tag likely to be north of $35 million per season, the contract is sure to be richest in team history. Depending how long this drags on, it could even reset the market as the richest QB contract in the league.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t savings to be had for the Dallas Cowboys. If the Cowboys are willing to commit to a longer-than-normal length, they may be able to maximize the value and, when all things are said and done, walk away with a bargain.

Every season the cost of doing business goes up. As people mindlessly argue “Dak’s not a top-3 QB so why would we pay him as one?” the real world of supply and demand passes them by.

It’s rare when the top-3 paid QBs are actually the top-3 performing QBs. That’s because in an economic environment where the most recent deals are often the richest, timing is everything in determining value. Every year the market goes up and a new market setter is found. That doesn’t mean a new best player rises, it just means a new player signs a deal in an ever-growing economy.

What does this have to do with Dak Prescott?

Even if Dallas would have overpaid in 2019, it probably would have been cheaper than paying market price in 2020. If they franchise him in 2020, the price is only going to go up in 2021 – regardless of how he even plays.

The good news is – even if Dak sets the market at QB this offseason, it’s only a matter of time before other QBs pass him on the pay scale. The longer the deal lasts, the lower he falls in the pay-scale rankings.

So the best way for Dallas to see savings is to stretch a deal to six or more seasons. Halfway through it’s going to look like a steal!

What are Dak Prescott’s demands?

As the saying goes, “it takes two to tango”. We can’t just blame the Dallas Cowboys completely without knowing exactly what Dak Prescott is demanding. Maybe they already are trying to stretch a deal beyond the traditional 4-5 years. Maybe it’s Dak’s side that wants a short-term deal that can reset with the ever-growing market. We really don’t know.

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What we do know is a short-term deal is the worst possible outcome. Even for those that don’t like Dak Prescott, a short-term deal is probably the worst way to go. After all, it’s clear the Dallas Cowboys brass intends on sticking with their signal-caller for the foreseeable future. And we all know how hard it is finding a franchise QB in this league. It’s highly unlikely the Cowboys would sign Dak short-term only to let him walk away in 1-3 years. They’re going to re-sign him again.

Getting Dak Prescott to agree to a 6-7 year deal, they are going to have to guarantee more than anyone has before. Based on his durability, maturity, and progression that’s probably a pretty safe investment too. Even a deal as big as $37 million per year will look like a bargain halfway through the contract.

An ever-growing marketplace ensures the worst thing Dallas can do is make Dak play under the Franchise Tag in 2020 and the second-worst thing Dallas can do is sign him to a short-term multi-year deal like Kirk Cousins signed in Minnesota (3-years). Five years is fine but if we want to see real savings we should be hoping for six or more seasons. Heck, we’re going to keep him in Dallas for the next 7-years anyway, aren’t we?

The best way to find value in NFL contracts is by investing as long as possible in trustworthy low-risk players. That’s the way the Dallas Cowboys win in these negotiations.

• Published on 02/05/2020 at 13:01 PM
• Last updated at 02/05/2020 at 11:37 AM