Dallas Cowboys: Trade Dak Prescott for Goff, Trubisky, or Bortles?

Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

There is a sizeable segment of the NFL fan base that believes, in a roundabout way, the Dallas Cowboys would be wise to trade Dak Prescott for players like Jared Goff, Mitchell Trubisky, Blake Bortles, and Jameis Winston.

Somehow this debate seems to be raging on: The Dallas Cowboys need to trade Dak Prescott to a QB-starved team for their top draft pick(s) and replace the uber-expensive Prescott with a rookie who plays for cheap and holds greater potential. Sound vaguely familiar?

The narrative perpetuated from the less-educated fraction of the national media says Dak Prescott is nothing but an average NFL signal caller, propped up by an elite roster, and the Dallas Cowboys could basically stamp their ticket to the Super Bowl if they just traded him for a rookie with a higher ceiling.

The idea that draft projections are always right is absurd. We all know that. The NFL Draft is what scientists call “a crapshoot”.  Blogging the Boys recently broke down all of the QB draft busts over the last decade. And let me tell you, it wasn’t pretty.

Giving up on someone of Dak Prescott’s caliber is like dumping the prom queen so you can take a swing at the Playmate of the Year

So to say the Dallas Cowboys could find a QB as talented as Dak Prescott, simply by drafting the top QB on their board, is a ridiculous statement.  Even if they had the top pick in the draft, it’s crazy (and statistically unlikely). Which brings us to the QBs listed above…

Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff,  Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, and EJ Manuel were all, respectively, the first QB off the board between 2013 and 2017. The only one that ever looked moderately good was Jared Goff, but we know now that was mostly smoke and mirrors, and at best, we’d probably rate him as “average”.

All the others are certifiable busts. The second QBs off the boards those years didn’t fare much better. Or the 3rd, or the 4th…(see also BTB article for full list). The point is, trying to find the next Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers isn’t about draft capital or willpower. It’s a bit of draft positioning, a dash of evaluation, and a metric crap-ton of luck.

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Giving up on someone of Dak Prescott’s caliber is like dumping the prom queen so you can take a swing on the Playmate of the Year (Do those still exist?). It’s an insane strategy. Even if the Dallas Cowboys flipped Dak for the first pick in this draft, it  assures nothing. The bust potential is enormous every single year.

Now there’s a second part of the strategy that involves percentage of money allocated to the QB position, and if too much is going to the QB, then too little is going elsewhere, and the team subsequently isn’t good enough to win.

In coming weeks we’ll dive into that boondoggle of an idea. But those who have been following the numbers know that virtually all of the NFLs most successful teams the past couple decades have featured top-10 passing offenses (and the main exceptions have been QBs who have caught fire and/or made critical and elite plays at critical and elite times).

In other words: Having a loaded roster is great as long as it doesn’t come at the cost of a top-10 passer. And having a loaded roster is basically worthless if you’re stuck with a pedestrian QB.

As shown here: How good is Dak Prescott, Dak has done everything he can to prove he’s at the top of the NFL. To think he’s this high at such a young age is mindboggling. And if you don’t think he’s good now, you’ll probably never believe it, no matter what he accomplishes.

Next. Why the Cowboys shouldn't focus on CB in the draft. dark

The point is trading Dak Prescott for premium draft picks is not an intelligent solution. Finding someone of equal or greater is highly unlikely and saving money isn’t nearly as important as having a great passing attack.

  • Published on 03/26/2020 at 11:01 AM
  • Last updated at 03/26/2020 at 09:02 AM