Why the Dallas Cowboys offense is the smart investment
Last season showed us how fragile this Dallas Cowboys offense is. Amari Cooper was noticeably hurt the second half of the season, which didn’t just hurt his production, but it had a trickle-down effect on the rest of the team. From Week 10-Week 16 Amari failed to ever post a 100-yard game. During that stretch Dallas went just 3-4, scoring 9, 15, and 9 in three of those late season losses.
Having a new offensive player capable of elevating the Cowboys offense AND insuring against injury to Amari and/or Michael Gallup isn’t so crazy: It’s enhancing and protecting a strength. And that strength is the only way this team is going to realistically make any noise next postseason.
This may sound like terrible news to some people sick of seeing the defense get run over, but accepting it helps us avoid a bad path – A path towards potentially over-investing in defense (granted, we’re nowhere near over-investing right now). While great defenses have a storied history of Super Bowl success in the NFL, they fail more often than they succeed in their construction, they are costly to maintain, and they are unsustainable in nature.
NFL teams trying to win by building a dominant D is like buying lottery ticket to retire on. Yes, it can work. But it’s harder, requires more pieces, cost too much to maintain, and is less consistent than traditional methods of investing (i.e. building a dominant passing offense)
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) April 15, 2020
Offense, on the other hand is a completely different story. If you can find a franchise QB you can win in this league. A great passing game covers up a lot of weaknesses elsewhere, and passing games are one of the most sustainable elements of a team year to year.
Not only is defense less stable over time, it's also less stable across splits like home and away
— Robby (@greerreNFL) December 31, 2019
Defense is really random pic.twitter.com/Yn46EaBtj1
Five Thirty Eight looked at this last year. Compiling all the data they found defenses vary considerably more than offenses year-to-year. That means great offenses are more likely to provide back-to-back-to-back good seasons and defensive success varies greatly year to year.
"“EPA gained by a passing offense is more stable year over year than that prevented by defense (r=0.48, r-squared = 0.23),” says Pro Football Focus"
Defensive success is based more upon the level of competition they face. Even on the micro level this is true: individual defensive players have extremely unstable performances year to year. This is especially true for players in coverage. More often than not, passing offense dictates the outcome because coverage success is largely dependent on the quality of passing attack they face.
To maintain the offense, the Dallas Cowboys need to add 2 components to the passing game: 1. A technician to operate out of the slot. 2. a speed/gadget guy to stretch the field. If they find an X in the draft, they could slide Amari inside in 11 personnel. Lotta ways to do it...
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) April 15, 2020
But that doesn’t mean to ignore defense…