The Dallas Cowboys aren’t doomed if they pay Dak: Point No. 5
Pay Good QBs/Don’t Pay Bad QBs
Teams inevitably struggle when they commit to average or below average passers long-term. Not when they pay good QBs. The key is you have to pay your good-to-great QBs and avoid paying your average-to-poor QBs.
Is Dak Prescott an average quarterback? Most reasonably minded folks have him placed considerably above average. It’s safe to say he resides between QB4 and QB10 on most credible analysts’ lists. Considering his age, the talent around him, and his rate of improvement, his ascension on most top-10 lists is all-but-assured.
Dak Prescott is 1 of 8 quarterbacks with an APY of at least $30M in the 2020 season.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 13, 2020
His Total QBR of 70.2 last season was the highest of that group. pic.twitter.com/Gv3qx6bxyc
How much is the difference anyway?
The difference between a mid-level NFL starting QB and a top-3 paid franchise QB is about $10-$15 million per year. Keep in mind Tyrone Crawford, who was injured most of last season, made what almost amounts to that difference last season.
What does that prove? It means it’s easy to overcome $10-$15 million if you have a decent personnel man building the roster.
If your GM stinks and makes a ton of bad personnel moves, then it’s possible spending big on the QB offers the death knell, but paying a QB $37 million isn’t going to sink a franchise on it’s own. Not if the QB plays up to expectations (and I don’t think anyone’s predicting Dak Prescott to regress in 2020).
Queen of analytics Twitter @minakimes breaks down Stephen Jones' claim that paying Dak Prescott decreases the Cowboys chances of winning 🤔 pic.twitter.com/QPGIiiiekm
— Around the Horn (@AroundtheHorn) May 11, 2020
Conclusion
The logic that you become a better team by downgrading at the most critically important position on the team is downright comical. Teams with good passing attacks are the teams who are most likely to win in the NFL. Yes, you can win without good quarterback play but it’s awfully difficult.
Our buddy, Moo, at Pro Football Focus looked into this very topic and came to the conclusion it just takes one new player on a rookie contract to counter the effects of setting the market at QB. I think the Dallas Cowboys expect that from this draft class, don’t you?
Finally he found there’s no correlation between paying QB top-of-market money and regression on the rest of the team (including defense and the running game). This seems to completely debunk the dumb argument that you can’t break the bank at QB and still win a Super Bowl. Pay the man.