Dallas Cowboys: No deal means expect a new starting QB by 2022
By Reid Hanson
It’s time to the face the fact that the Dallas Cowboys will likely be looking for a new starting quarterback by 2022
It wasn’t supposed to happen this way. The Dallas Cowboys were supposed to come to an agreement with Dak Prescott in the 11th hour. They were supposed to lock in their franchise arm for the next four years. They were supposed to ensure stability at the most important position in sports.
Alas, they did not. The same team that paid a running back, with two years left on his deal, market setting money somehow didn’t sign the catalyst of their offense. And now the Dallas Cowboys must face the reality that they will probably lose their quarterback in the next two years.
Dak Prescott has no reason to sign
The fact that Dak’s future now likely resides with a different franchise isn’t hyperbole. It’s a reality the Dallas Cowboys must face. That’s largely because Dak Prescott has no good reason to sign with Dallas now. Let’s play this out…
2020: Dak costs $31.4M on tag
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) July 16, 2020
2021: Dak costs $37.7M on tag
2022: Dak costs $45.2M on tag
I wouldn't even entertain under $42M/year in '21 knowing Dallas probably won't tag him in '22 and free agency is now just a year away. He has no reason to sign with the #Cowboys anymore
Since the two sides missed the deadline, they can no longer negotiate a deal this year and Dak must play the season on the franchise tag. In 2021 they can negotiate a long-term deal again but the price to sign him is going to skyrocket.
Not only will the tag go up 20% (to $37.7M), but league revenues will be down (income lost from live fans), meaning the salary cap drops (or at best, flatlines) and Dak takes up an even larger percentage of the cap. Keep in mind, the Dallas Cowboys don’t currently even have $37.7 million in space next year.
Additionally, he’ll likely be coming off his best season as a pro given the amount of talent around him. The biggest reason it doesn’t make sense for him to sign long-term next year is because he’d only be months away from hitting the open market.
Since the price to tag Dak in 2022 will go up to over $45 million, it’s highly unlikely the Dallas Cowboys could afford to use it a third time, meaning Dak hits the open market and a bidding war ensues.
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At this point his value will be astronomical since he’ll be coming off what we assume will be three consecutive Pro Bowl seasons (Look at the Cowboys offense and tell me otherwise) and hitting free agency under age 30. We’ve never seen a QB of that caliber hit free agency before and if things play out as planned, he’ll command a contract that would make Patrick Mahomes blush.
If the Dallas Cowboys are hoping to enter into reasonable negotiations after this season they’re going to be disappointed. All Dak has to do is play on the tag one additional season and he’s basically guaranteed to be a free agent on market that’s set to explode (new TV money coming).
For Dak, it would make zero sense to get that close to free agency only to give up a few months before the ultimate prize. The Dallas Cowboys would have to blow him out of the water with an offer next year and frankly, even then it might not be enough.
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Logically it doesn’t make sense for Dak Prescott to sign a multiyear with the Dallas Cowboys. By missing the deadline to sign the deal this year, he’s only be one more franchise tag away from the ultimate prize – free agency. The Dallas Cowboys botched this one bigtime.
- Published on 07/16/2020 at 12:01 PM
- Last updated at 07/16/2020 at 11:57 AM