Dallas Cowboys: Projecting the Run vs Pass Split

The Dallas Cowboys had a really rough 2020 if we are all honest with ourselves. A new coach without an offseason, their top-tier quarterback going down, a run of injuries on the offensive line, and a defense that had problems with talent and scheme left a lot to be desired by the end of the season.

One thing the Cowboys did have going for them was an increase in the run/pass split. Sure, some of it was being down and having to come back, but the trend was still moving up before Dak got injured.

The Dallas Cowboys had a lot going against them in 2020, but there was a trend upward in the run/pass split.

Before the injury, Dallas was second in the league in run/pass percentage trending toward pass with 66.22%. By the end of the season, this would dip a little to 61.37%, just behind Buffalo for 12th in the league. Now before people get going, yes, the Cowboys did have to come back more often, but not once did the Cowboys dip below a 50/50 split. The closest they got was a 50/50 split in the Bengals win where the Bengals lost 3 fumbles, and Cincinnati still outgained the Cowboys in both passing and rushing. For context in 2019, the Cowboys had a 58% pass over run, and only three teams in 2020 ran more than passed with Tennessee, New England, and Baltimore being those teams.

The league has been trending upward with more and more teams passing more than running. For reference in 2010, only seven teams were above 60% in their splits, in 2003 only three teams were above 60%, in 2020 thirteen teams were above 60% and Seattle was fractions of a percentage off from being the fourteenth team (2019 did have fourteen teams above 60%).

So what does this really have to do with the Dallas Cowboys? Well, with a healthy Dak Prescott, a full complement of offensive weapons, and a full offseason, the Cowboys could find themselves even higher in percentage in 2021. A percentage closer to 63-64% is a real possibility unless there is a repeat of 2020 in regards to injuries.

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There are a few contextual things that could drop this percentage that we should mention. If the defense is overly dominant and creates points or if the Cowboys are well ahead late in games, this could affect the percentage, but honestly speaking, it shouldn’t. The league is changing, analytics is a huge part of this movement. There is more efficiency to passing than running, however, it is easier to scheme a player open in the passing game, and the league rules have given the advantage to passing the ball. This all makes for teams to see more value in passing than in the past.

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If Mike McCarthy has really been looking at analytics and Kellen Moore is the offensive mind we think he could be, then the Cowboys will be passing more in 2021. Gone is the Garrett era of wanting to establish the run to set up the pass, the “ideally you want to have a 50/50 split” mentality is now in New York. This could be a huge year for Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, the tight ends, the running backs out of the backfield, and the rest of the offensive cast.

Published on 06/15/2021 at 16:01 PM
Last updated at 06/15/2021 at 12:46 PM

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