The Dallas Cowboys leaned heavily on the NFL Draft to build their roster this year. Using all of their picks, they added nine rookies to their 2022 NFL campaign. After losing a handful of significant players earlier in the offseason, new blood was welcomed, if not outright needed.
“Out with the old, and in with the new” is often the name of the game in today’s NFL. But how soon can we realistically expect the Dallas Cowboys “new” to be reliable assets on the field?
Last year notwithstanding, rookies rarely make much of an impact in their first year. While many come in with sky-high ceilings and truckloads of developmental promise, they are rarely more than replacement level contributors early.
Don’t expect the rookie class to boost the Dallas Cowboys much in 2022.
This is no slight to this particular class, it’s simply the nature of the beast. The jump from college to pros is a significant one. Time is needed for development. Timo Riske at PFF measured rookie impact over the years and determined the biggest gains typically occur in Year 2 and 3. Even highly regarded prospects struggle to make an immediate impact as rookies.
In other words, Micah Parsons is not the norm, my friends.
Rookies rarely make a major impact in Year 1 which is what makes this Dallas Cowboys rookie class so amazing. The roles and impact Parsons, Osa, Golston, and Bohanna have made this year is not normal (Chart via @PFF_Moo shows gains made Yr2-3) #CowboysNation #Cowboys pic.twitter.com/0mydzVecUy
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) October 4, 2021
When Dallas opted to clear their deck of expensive and underperforming veterans like Amari Cooper and La’el Collins, they accepted a regression at the positions they leave behind.
Even first round picks need time to develop into above average starters – especially a pick like Tyler Smith who’s the youngest in his class and makes the leap from Tulsa to starter in the National Football League. That’s no slight to Smith, it’s just how the numbers bear out.
This isn’t to say the Dallas rookies won’t compete this season, either. The Dallas Cowboys painted themselves into a corner with their cost-cutting moves this offseason. They don’t really have a choice. Just like they HAD TO draft a guard early in 2022 draft, they essentially HAVE TO start him as a rookie.
Jalen Tolbert and Dee Williams will need to play as well. Need dictates that. But just don’t expect them to make an immediate impact (good or bad) because that’s rarely the case with rookies.
The players we should be looking to make big impacts are last year’s draft picks. Osa Odighizuwa and Chauncey Golston are both entering Year 2 in the Dallas Cowboys program. They both flashed promise as rookies and could be ready to take that impactful second-year step.
Nahshon Wright also saw some action late last season. We broke down his play earlier and came away somewhat impressed. Josh Ball didn’t show anything as a rookie but he has the tangibles that indicate he can compete in a reserve role. And I’m not sure how much better Micah Parsons could possibly get, but if he’s allowed to rush the passer as much as last season, anything’s possible.
The point is, don’t expect big impacts from rookies because they rarely make waves until Year 2 or Year 3. And this Dallas Cowboys draft class which looks especially project-like, certainly doesn’t look to be the exception.