Is Tyron Smith worth it for the Dallas Cowboys (inside the numbers)

Tyron Smith was held out. Again. While this time his back issues were just precautionary measures during a May minicamp, it’s hard not to take it as a canary in the coal mine for the Dallas Cowboys upcoming season.

As the words, “here we go again” reverberate through the collective minds of Cowboys Nation, many have taken it upon themselves to vocalize their dissatisfaction with Tyron Smith. They have been not-so-elegantly publicly proclaiming, “We should just cut Tyron.”

Today we look at the dollars and sense and determine whether or not Tyron Smith is worth it for the Dallas Cowboys.

Tyron Smith is a former All-Pro and future Hall of Famer. He will go down as one of the best players to ever wear the Star, to that there is no doubt. But at the age of 31 and after a series of back issues, his best days are clearly behind him.

It’s been seven seasons since Tyron Smith has played a full season for the Dallas Cowboys. The wear and tear have certainly taken their toll over the years and while he’s good when he’s playing, he’s not consistently playing.

Take their grades with a grain of salt, but PFF has graded Tyron as a top-16 OT in every season since 2013. And last year his film graded out as No. 2 in the NFL. We can argue over methodology and accuracy of these grades all day (they are highly flawed) but they rarely place someone in the top-10 of any position who isn’t really, really, good. Next Gen stats agrees, Tyron is No. 7 in run block win rate over at ESPN. Best yet, watch the All-22 yourself, Tyron is still a darn good LT.

But that’s not what people are really debating these days, is it? What people are upset about is his availability (or lack thereof) and whether or not he’s worth his $17.5 million cap hit this year. That’s an awful lot of coin to give to a part-time player, after all.

Per Over the Cap, Tyron Smith accounts for 7.9% of the Dallas Cowboys cap this season. That’s fine if he plays the season but when he starts to miss games, things get dicey. Releasing Smith (as a post 1-June cut) would result in $13.M in savings this year but saddle Dallas with a total of $12M in dead money going forward.  That’s because the prorated bonuses are monies pushed back and have to be absorbed, even if they were paid long ago.

So we shouldn’t look at Smith costing $17 million this season since $4M of that is already spent and on the books regardless. We need to look at Smith costing $13.5M million because that’s what he’s actually costing the Dallas Cowboys.

Removing the outlier seasons (fewest/most games missed in a single season) we can see he averaged four missed games per season since 2017. So based on recent history we can reasonably assume Tyron will miss four games here in 2022. That means Tyron will be earning 1,038,461.54 per game this season.

How does that compare to other top talents in the NFL?

Based on average annual compensation, Tyron Smith is just the 25th highest paid OT in the NFL. Even if he misses games, $1.038M per game is less than 10 NFL offensive tackles average annually, playing all 17 games. And let’s be real, most don’t play the full 17.

*Average Annual used because subjects are at various stages in the respective contracts and in an effort to avoid accounting manipulations it’s best to compare average annual.

As we can see, Tyron is paid somewhat fairly even if he does miss some games this season. His contract is so low it affords that grace. What we have to keep in mind is at some point, it’s not worth it. He can’t miss six games like he did last year because that would make him overpaid on a per game basis. That’s something only Tyron, his doctors, and the Dallas Cowboys trainers can predict and be forced to live with.

From a roster perspective we can look at the Dallas Cowboys offensive line room and definitively say we NEED Tyron. The Cowboys are already making a leap of faith at RT with Terence Steele and the LG spot with Tyler Smith. They can’t afford to cut bait at LT and roll with a different option because Tyron is all they have.

See also: Did the Cowboys make a fatal error at LT depth this year?

2022 is likely to be a make-or-break season for Tyron Smith and four games is my personal over/under. If Smith misses more, he won’t be back in 2023. Either by his own doing or the Cowboys (Again, just my opinion on the matter).

But the development of Tyler Smith, Josh Ball, and Matt Waletzko will also play a part. If none of them look like viable replacements to Tyron, the Dallas Cowboys will be more patient than he may otherwise deserve. If one of the three shows legit franchise LT promise, patience will likely wear thin on Tyron– even if he falls within that four game threshold I set.

Cut Tyron Smith? Heck no, have you seen the roster? Besides, as long as he doesn’t miss too many games, he’s still well worth the price tag.