Texas Rangers are better than their record/feelings indicate

Splitting the double-header in Cleveland, the Texas Rangers stand Pat at 26-29, keeping the dream of crossing that .500 threshold someday soon, alive.

After blowing lead after lead after lead in recent games, it’s a threshold that should have been crossed a while ago, and it probably feels like a carrot that’s just out of reach to those of us who watched the opportunity come and go last week.

The way the Texas Rangers have managed to lose games this season has been painful. One thing always seems to tank an otherwise nifty performance. And while that has a way of damaging the psyche, it’s really a good sign…

The Texas Rangers are close to putting things together, which is why the blown opportunities hurt so much.

Blowouts aren’t as painful as they are embarrassing. Hopes never rise and expectations stay tempered throughout. It’s those close game that hurt so much. Hopes and expectations have no choice but to elevate – especially in games in which the Texas Rangers are in control.

So when the Rangers blow a game they’ve generally had control of late, it feels worse than a loss normally would.

The Texas Rangers record shows a team floundering in mediocrity and in many ways that’s correct. As Bill Parcels once said, “You are what your record says you are.”

But even with the record things appear worse than they really are. The fact that the Rangers are close tells us a couple tweaks could make all the difference. For instance: If the bullpen just regresses to the mean, things will look infinitely better in Texas.

Another factor to consider is the play of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. Both players are underperforming right now which means roughly half the payroll is performing under established level of play. As such, a positive regression should be expected here in the near future.

Semien just gave an example of the flip yesterday. Before the double-header, his batting average had been sitting on the wrong side of .200. This has been his worst start of his career and not something fans should expect to continue. It’s an outlier and the numbers say it’s going to continue to improve.

Seager as well. He didn’t start as cold as Semien but he’s not playing up to his usual standard yet. Based on all previous evidence, fans should expect Seager and Semien to step up their play.

Do you think half the payroll flipping from below expectations to at-or-above expectations will make a difference? I think so.

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The Rangers are learning to win and are expected to have growing pains along the way. But what’s really hurting them is abnormally poor performances – performances the odds tell us are bound to improve.