Dallas Cowboys pass-rush flashes elite, promises upsets down the road
By Reid Hanson
If you have a franchise quarterback and an elite pass-rush, anything can happen. That line of thought goes back decades – and for good reason. All too often we’ve seen the “better” team lose all because the opponent boasted a better passing game (offensive and defensive differential). Given the quality of Dak Prescott and the pass-rush, the Dallas Cowboys appear they will often have the advantage on both sides
In Monday night’s win over the New York Giants, the Dallas Cowboys were tasked with beating an opponent on the road, without their franchise QB. A tall task, to be sure.
For as much as we bag on Daniel Jones for being…well…Daniel Jones, he was good enough to win. The Dallas Cowboys pass-rush just wouldn’t let him.
The Dallas Cowboys have Dak Prescott (soon) and an elite pass-rush, and with that, anything can happen.
The biggest factor in determining winners and losers in the NFL is the team that wins the passing battle (offensively and defensively). Passing and pass-rush are the most stable parts of the game week to week, and the most influential category in determining victory.
And the thing you are all waiting for:
— Kostas Pelechrinis (@kpelechrinis) September 15, 2018
Passing efficiency (offensive and defensive) explains 55%-64% of the win-loss record variance. Rushing efficiency explains 5%-12%, while special teams (both kickoffs and punts) explains less than 2% of the win-loss variance.
The team that controls the passing game, controls the game. By the numbers, no other part of the game comes close to determining winners and losers. That doesn’t mean the running game has no impact, or that special teams failure can’t sink a season. It just means looking back historically, passing efficiency is the biggest key (both offensively and defensively).
Micah Parsons can beat anyone in the NFL. And his mobile nature means Dan Quinn can move him around to exploit match-ups and/or create opportunities for others. On Monday Night, Parsons did the latter, opening things up for DeMarcus Lawrence who delivered three sacks, seven pressures, and a pressure rate of 25.9% per PFF.
In all, Jones was harassed to the tune of five sacks and12 hits and over 30 pressures. Parsons may not have tallied sacks but the kid collected six pressures, two hits, and a 24.2% pressure rate despite constant double-teams.
Now, the New York Giants are pretty far from a top team in the NFL. They’ll likely finish with a losing record and be picking early in the 2023 NFL Draft. But three games into the 2022 season, the Dallas Cowboys pass-rush has shown you they can get to anyone.
Passing efficiency is yards gained on offense, minus yards allowed on defense….84.5% of playoff teams have had a positive passing efficiency
The pass-rush rotation is deep and the attack is multiple. They can out-scheme anyone and have the coverage to buy them time and exploit mistakes. Best of all, they don’t have to blitz to get the job done. As we pointed out last week, the Cowboys lead the NFL in stunts this season. They are creating pressure without committing extra players.
The NFL is a passing league. If you can pass the ball at will and stop other teams from passing the ball at will, chances are you’re going to win. Even if the other team has the better running game, special teams, and everything else.
Passing efficiency is yards gained on offense, minus yards allowed on defense. In the study linked above that looked at playoff teams from 1998-2007, 84.5% of them had a positive passing efficiency (insert big eye emoji).
Cooper Rush isn’t a franchise QB. Just one month ago, Cooper Rush was a training camp cut. Dallas had to get to 53 and had little concern anyone would grab Rush. As we know, the move was only temporary and Rush eventually made it to the 53 when Dak was lost to injury. But the point was, Rush hasn’t been regarded as a very hot commodity.
The Dallas Cowboys are winning the passing battle because Rush is holding his own, and the Cowboys pass-rush is crippling the opponent. When Dak Prescott gets back in a couple weeks, we should see that offensive output increase.
Next. Stop it! Cooper Rush isn't replacing Dak Prescott. dark
With an elite pass-rush and a franchise QB, you can beat anyone. Even better teams. Knowing that, it has to make the Dallas Cowboys feel good this morning.