While it's fun to dream about the offensive playmakers the Dallas Cowboys can target with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, it's important to acknowledge that Jerry Jones has a knack for letting fans down. And it's also important to track what's really been going on when we try to predict a pick.
The Cowboys have had a huge number of pre-draft meetings, but there are only three players they have had multiple visits with. And one of the names on the list is an early-round draft target that sends a clear message to an existing starter.
Mazi Smith should be looking very closely at what the Cowboys are forecasting.
Mazi Smith on Thin Ice as Cowboys Focus on Walter Nolen
The Cowboys have hosted Ole Miss defensive tackle Walter Nolen on both a local visit and a top-30 visit. Nolen is projected to go off the board in the first or second round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and this interest sends a clear message to Mazi Smith.
One defensive tackle position in Dallas is locked up. Osa Odighizuwa is an outstanding interior pass-rusher, and his $80 million contract shows significant commitment from the team. But his deficiencies as a run defender make the other defensive tackle role crucial.
And Mazi Smith, who was drafted in the first round of the 2023 draft to shore up Dallas' run defense, has been a complete liability.
The 337-pounder is not asked to do much as a pass-rusher, and his 2.0 career sacks in two seasons aren't the red flag that you might think if you were just looking at box scores. But the fact that his run defense has been even worse than his pass-rushing is inexcusable.
Nobody who spent much time watching the Cowboys last year will demand much proof to back up an insult of Smith's run defense, but his 35.9 run defense grade ranking 201st out of 219 defensive tackles certainly does just that. Even worse? That's actually somehow a slight improvement from the 34.9 he earned as a rookie in 2023.
Nolen projects to be what Mazi Smith is not. PFF graded him out at 91.6 against the run in his final collegiate season in 2024, and while you don't draft a guy like that for his pass-rushing chops, he did also rack up 6 sacks and 25 hurries in 2024 as well.
Smith was always going to be on thin ice this offseason, and the Cowboys' heavy interest in spending an early draft pick on a direct replacement is making that ice even thinner.