How the Cowboys Can Make the Playoffs: Predicting the Remaining 2024 Schedule

The Dallas Cowboys' season seemed entirely lost just a couple of weeks ago, sitting at 3-7 with their backup quarterback at the helm. Many fans were ready to call it a year and begin tanking for a better draft pick, but the Cowboys players and coaches made it clear that they had no such intentions.

Now, coming off back-to-back wins, there are rumblings about the "p word" again. Like Micah Parsons said in his amazing postgame interview on Thanksgiving, "why not us?"

But sitting at 5-7 in an incredibly difficult NFC, even a hot run down the stretch won't guarantee a postseason appearance for the 'Boys. A lot has to go very right — both in terms of their own play and getting help from other teams around the league. But it's certainly not impossible.

The Philadelphia Eagles are all but guaranteed to win the NFC East, so if Dallas wants to make the playoffs, it's as a Wild Card team. The NFC North will almost certainly earn two of the three open spots, as three teams (Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers) in the division already have nine wins. Even if the Cowboys win out, they'll only have nine wins. So, consider that there's essentially just one spot up for grabs.

This leaves Dallas (5-7) competing with the Washington Commanders (7-5), the entire NFC West (all four teams are 6-5 or 5-6) and whoever doesn't win the NFC South between the 5-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 6-5 Atlanta Falcons.

Looking at the rest of the Cowboys' 2024 schedule, here's what a realistic path to a Wild Card berth would look like for Dallas.

Cowboys Schedule 2024: How They Can Make the Playoffs

Week 13 vs. New York Giants

Obviously we have an answer to the first step of the equation for Week 13 — the Cowboys did their job and came away with a 27-20 win over the New York Giants. Unfortunately the Washington Commanders (likely Dallas' competition for a potential final Wild Card spot in the NFC) have an incredibly easy matchup, and they're favored by almost a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans. A Titans upset would be huge for Cowboys fans, but don't hold out hope.

This would bump the Commanders up to 8-5.

Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Monday Night Football)

This game won't be a true must-win, especially with Dallas holding the tiebreaker over Washington so far, but every game is basically a must-win at this point. That's doubly true when you consider there's still a road game in Philly coming up.

The Cowboys are early 6.5-point underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals, but a playoff berth would almost certainly need to include the upset win. When you consider how well the Cowboys' pass rush is playing and that the Bengals consistently fail to protect Joe Burrow (No. 24 in PFF pass blocking grade), there's certainly a realistic path to the defense causing enough disruption to take over the game.

The Commanders will be on bye, the Falcons will likely take a loss on the road against the Minnesota Vikings, and one of the Seahawks or Cardinals will have to lose (unless they tie their head-to-head meeting, which would be a fine result for Dallas too).

Week 15 @ Carolina Panthers

Even on the road, this is a game the Cowboys should have no trouble winning if they are serious about making the playoffs. And honestly, if they can't win this game they don't deserve to be in the playoffs anyway, so that would simply be justice.

The Commanders' matchup isn't a hard one, but the New Orleans Saints are usually a more feisty team than they get credit for, and the game will be at the Caesars Superdome. The Seahawks get the Packers and the Bucs are on the road against the Chargers. Worrying games in Week 15, however, include the Cardinals getting the Patriots and the Falcons getting the Raiders.

Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday Night Football)

This game will be huge for seeding and a potential tiebreak. With the teams so close, it's definitely possible that the tiebreaker of a head-to-head win over the Bucs could be what lands the Cowboys in the playoffs.

Week 17 @ Philadelphia Eagles

If Washington drops those last two games against the Eagles and the Saints, this is probably the one place the Cowboys can afford a slip-up. Dallas winning each of their next three games while the Commanders go 1-2 in that time would have both teams at 8-7.

Washington is at home against the Falcons in Week 17, which is really a game that could go either way. But thanks to the potential tiebreak, if Washington won and Dallas lost, the Cowboys could still pass them with a Week 18 win.

If the Commanders do beat either the Saints or the Eagles, however, that means the Cowboys will have to be perfect and upset the likely NFC East winner on the road.

Week 18 vs. Washington Commanders

This one may decide it all. As I've outlined above, the Commanders are really Dallas' top competition for a potential playoff spot, and realistic scenarios that involve Dallas making the Wild Card would have the Cowboys entering this game at 8-8 while the Commanders are either 9-7 or 8-8.

But going 2-0 against Washington would give Dallas the higher seed if both teams finished with the same record, so it ultimately doesn't matter whether the Commanders come in with 8 or 9 wins. If Dallas loses this game they'll almost surely wind up with the lesser record, and in these scenarios a win would put them ahead no matter what.

Considering Dallas beat Washington in Washington already, it's certainly no stretch to think they can do it in Dallas — especially if we're considering this hypothetical world in which the Cowboys had gone 3-1 after Thanksgiving.

So there it is, "simple" as that. If Dallas can put together a 4-1 run over the remainder of the regular season to move to 9-8, they have a shot. But even in that situation, they need some serious help, as Washington can make themselves uncatchable with 3 more wins (assuming the Cowboys lose 1 game, or 4 more wins if Dallas goes undefeated down the stretch.

So is it possible? Absolutely. But is it likely? I guess that depends how much faith you have in Mike McCarthy and Cooper Rush.

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