Sport DFW's Best Dallas Betting Picks for 7/25 (Bad News for Rangers Fans)

Last night's loss is probably still stinging for Rangers fans, but what helps ease the pain better than winning money? If you followed yesterday's picks and bet the Over, you'd have at least cashed in.

And with the Rangers back at it today in what feels like a must-win game, you better believe we're looking at finding some betting value in the matchup again. Plus, there's some other AL West action presenting value, too.

Here's a look at the Sport DFW team's best betting picks for Tuesday.

Dallas Best Bets: July 25, 2023

Tyler Maher: Astros Moneyline vs. Rangers

As we predicted, last night’s game between the Astros and Rangers ended up being a slugfest. Houston emerged with a 10-9 victory, cutting Texas’ lead in the AL West two two games.

Tuesday’s game probably won’t see as much offense, but it may still have the same result with an Astros win. Houston is sending rookie J.P. France to the mound, who’s really come into his own this summer. Since June 1, France is 4-2 with a 2.66 ERA over his last eight starts.

The Rangers have yet to announce a starter for Tuesday’s contest, which doesn’t bode well for their chances tonight. The Astros have won 12 of their last 18 and five of their last six, so they have a ton of momentum coming into this game. 

Houston has the upper hand in the season series (5-3) and is capable of putting runs on the board in a hurry, as it showed last night. Back the home team to win again behind another solid performance from France.

Jason Schandl: Twins Moneyline vs. Mariners

The Astros are obviously our only real competition in the AL West, but that doesn’t mean it’s not still sweet to watch other teams in the division lose. And that’s exactly what’s on tap for the Mariners tonight.

A cursory look at the pitching matchup might seem favorable for Seattle with George Kirby (9-8, 3.23 ERA) dueling with Pablo Lopez (5-6, 4.22 ERA), but Lopez’s 2023 numbers are beyond misleading. He’s no less of an ace this year than when he posted a career-best 3.07 ERA in 2021. If anything, he’s better now.

Lopez is striking out 30.2% of the batters he’s faced and generating swinging strikes on 14.2% of his pitches. Those are both elite marks and both career-bests. He’s also done that while keeping his walk rate (7.0%) right in line with his career average (6.8%). Whichever ERA-predictive advanced metric you like, be it FIP (3.40), xFIP (3.50), SIERA (3.39) or xERA (3.22), they all prove that his 4.22 ERA is a mirage and that’s he’s been deadly.

Kirby, on the other hand, has a misleadingly good ERA with all of his advanced numbers coming in higher than that 3.23 mark.

Bank on some regression here and take advantage of getting a good price in what shouldn’t be an especially close matchup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.