Sport DFW's Best Dallas Betting Picks for 7/26 (Another Tough Pill to Swallow)
It's hard to like how things are going in the AL West right now, and having Andrew Heaney on the mound isn't a great sign that things will turn around. So let's at least make some money while it happens.
Making money betting against the Rangers is seriously bittersweet. Watching our lead in the AL West slip away is painful, and getting swept feels terrible no matter the opponent. But it does go down a little easier when you're cashing in on it happening.
Rangers fans might not like what's going on in the division right now, but savvy bettors can still find plenty of value.
Here are the Sport DFW staff's best Dallas betting picks for Wednesday.
Dallas Best Bets: July 26, 2023
Tyler Maher: Astros Runline vs. Rangers
The Rangers’ comeback fell just short in the ninth inning last night, resulting in another one-run loss against the Astros. Our AL West lead is now down to one game as we try to avoid the sweep today.
It’s tough to like our chances too much with Andrew Heaney (6-6, 4.58 ERA) on the mound, though. He’s been wildly inconsistent lately but more bad than good, posting a 6.38 ERA and a .913 opponent OPS over his last five starts. Not surprisingly, Texas is 1-4 in those outings.
Houston, meanwhile, has All-Star lefty Framber Valdez (8-6, 2.94 ERA) toeing the rubber. Valdez has been a mixed bag lately as well with a 5.79 ERA over his last four starts, but his 3.75 FIP and .365 BABIP during that span indicate bad luck more than bad performance.
The Astros are one of the best teams in baseball against lefties, ranking 10th in MLB with a 110 wRC+ against southpaws. They also have momentum on their side after winning six of their last seven and have home-field advantage as well, so unfortunately we need to pick against the Rangers in this one.
Jason Schandl: Mariners vs. Twins UNDER
Looking around the AL West for more betting action today, I’m banking on a return to normal in the Mariners-Twins series. Last night’s shootout came out of nowhere, but I think we get a much more low-scoring affair in this spot.
Bryce Miller is really showing some promise in Seattle with each of his last two starts going about 5 innings with a combined 1 earned run, 9 strikeouts and 3 walks. He’ll be pitching on the road today so he loses the benefit of the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball, but it’s not like Target Field is a hitter's haven either.
And on the other side, Joe Ryan is also showing flashes for Minnesota with his advanced metrics (3.65 FIP, 3.68 xFIP 3.36 SIERA) all pointing to his pitching in 2023 being even better than his 3.88 ERA might have you believe.
Both offenses have been decent enough against right-handed pitching this season, but with a solid pitching matchup on tap it seems like the betting markets might be overrating the impact of last night’s high-scoring game.
Looking to back either of our bets today? Sport DFW has secured some big sportsbook promos that will make sure you cash in:
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.