Sport DFW's Best Dallas Betting Picks for 7/31 (Back Dak, AL West Action)
The Rangers are off and the NFL preseason officially kicks off this week, so it's hard for Dallas fans to truly have their attention set on the MLB on Monday. But with the trade deadline approaching and some important AL West action on tap, it's not like baseball is taking a back seat.
With that in mind, here are the Sport DFW editors' top betting pick for Dallas sports fans on Monday.
Dallas Best Bets: July 31, 2023
Jason Schandl: Astros vs. Guardians OVER
With the Rangers off on Monday, fans will have their eyes glued to the Astros game. And that game is exactly where I’m looking for big betting value.
Unfortunately I think the Astros probably win this one, but what really excites me is the betting value on the over for the run total. This is because J.P. France is a total fraud, and he’s on the mound for Houston.
Is there a worse starting pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA this season? Maybe not. FanGraphs has 13 starting pitchers listed with an ERA below 3.00 on the year (min. 50 innings pitched), and France has the worst FIP, second worst xERA and second-worst xFIP in the group. Nobody else ranks bottom-two in all three of those metrics.
On the other side, Cleveland will be trotting out the sad husk of Noah Syndergaard, who really does look to be absolutely shot at this point. It’s not just that he’s consistently getting shelled (6, 5 and 6 earned runs allowed in his last three starts), but that his velocity has fallen off a cliff and he’s giving up a ton of contact while failing to generate swinging strikes. None of his underlying numbers show any hope that this is just a phase.
So with all but guaranteed offense on one side and a highly overrated pitcher on the other, we have the perfect recipe for this game to generate more runs than the betting lines are projecting.
Isaiah De Los Santos: Dak Prescott OVER 26.5 Passing Touchdowns
There’s been a ton of discourse around Dak Prescott this offseason, as is expected of the Cowboys' QB1. However, adding to the noise is the fact Prescott’s coming off of what most regard as a career-worst showing. Another injury that knocked him out for a stretch and tying for the league lead in interceptions certainly didn’t provide any reasons for optimism in 2022.
However, the sour perception of Prescott right now around the league provides an opportunity to cash in. The newly minted 30-year-old is actually favored to go under his season passing touchdown total of 26.5 on DraftKings, and I’m jumping on the over while it’s still available at +100.
Prescott’s receiving corps undergoing a significant shakeup this offseason is one big reason I’m bullish on a bounce-back showing. The addition of veteran Brandin Cooks gives this offense a legit WR2 and one of the best one-two punches in the league alongside CeeDee Lamb. Dallas also made sure to beef up the tight end room with Dalton Schultz departing by drafting pass-catching specialist Luke Schoonmaker.
Meanwhile, the incumbent Michael Gallup should be even better in 2023 after coming back from his ACL tear in less than a full year. There’s also 2022 third-round pick Jalen Tolbert, who saw a limited role as a rookie. A full offseason to fully prepare, plus the already established familiarity with the team as a sophomore, could help him show his true potential this season.
Prescott has the talent around him to post at least 27 passing touchdowns. He’s more than capable of it as well, considering he recorded 30 TDs in 2019 and 37 in 2021 – which were his last two fully healthy campaigns. Assuming he avoids the injury bug, there’s no reason he shouldn’t clear this over with ease.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.