We've got a huge and important day of baseball ahead of us. Not only is it the MLB Trade Deadline, but the Rangers and Astros are both in action with only half a game separating them in the AL West standings.
With first place on the line tonight, here are the Sport DFW editors' top betting pick for Dallas sports fans on Tuesday.
Dallas Best Bets: August 1, 2023
Tyler Maher: Rangers Runline vs. White Sox
The Rangers return to action today after Monday’s off day. The Astros have trimmed Texas’ lead to just half a game in the AL West standings, so we could really use a win today after dropping seven of our last nine.
Fortunately, we’re in a great spot at home against the White Sox, who sit 19 games below .500 with a minus-83 run differential. Chicago’s been especially brutal on the road, going 20-35 away from home.
The pitching matchup should be in our favor as well. The White Sox are going with an opener in rookie Jesse Scholtens, who you’ve probably never heard of before. His 3.32 ERA in 38 innings is largely a mirage, as his 4.72 FIP and 5.4 K/9 suggest it’s unsustainable.
Andrew Heaney hasn’t been great for us, but at least we can usually count on him for five solid innings. He’s 7-6 with a 4.62 ERA in 20 starts this year, which is perfectly serviceable for a back-end starter.
Heaney just needs to hold the line and let our offense do its job. Texas leads MLB with 5.75 runs per game, while Chicago ranks 23rd at 4.17 runs per game.
Based on that difference alone, the Rangers should be able to cover the 1.5 runline. They’re also 33-21 against the runline at home this year, so we expect that trend to continue.
Jason Schandl: Astros Moneyline vs. Guardians
As usual, I’ve got a close eye on the Astros game tonight — both from a real-world AL West standings perspective and from a betting perspective.
Love him or hate him, Houston is incredibly dangerous with Framber Valdez on the mound. His ERA is up a bit this year, but the fact that 3.29 is “up” is telling in and of itself. He’s running a strikeout rate well above his career average (26.0% compared to 23.5% average) and a walk rate well below his average (6.2% compared to 9.0%), so it's hard to fault him much for his 8-7 record.
On the other side, Gavin Williams has shown plenty of promise for the Guardians, but I’m not buying it yet. His 3.35 ERA is certainly shiny, but it comes with a whole array of advanced stats that suggest he’s about to come crashing back to earth. It doesn’t matter what stat you like, either, as none of them are particularly encouraging: 4.44 FIP, 4.99 xFIP, 4.74 xERA and 5.08 SIERA.
This potent Astros lineup is more than capable of being the one to bring his actual ERA a little closer to where those advanced numbers say it should be.
Isaiah De Los Santos: Sun Moneyline vs. Lynx
With the Wings off tonight, I’m looking to take advantage of the rival Lynx for some WNBA betting value tonight. Minnesota, who’s currently just 1.5 games back of Dallas in the Western Conference, draws one of the league’s best teams in the Sun on Tuesday.
Connecticut has dominated most opponents throughout the 2023 offseason thanks to a high-scoring offense and intimidating defense. Stephanie White’s squad ranks fifth in PPG and an impressive No. 1 overall in fewest opponent points per game, which gives them the edge on most nights.
Though the Sun fell 87-83 against the Lynx on Sunday, I believe Connecticut responds with a win here. The Sun have already racked up two victories against the Lynx this season, taking them down by five points on June 1 and by 21 points on June 22. Their previous wins and 18-7 record speak to the overwhelming talent on Connecticut's side.
Minnesota had a better-than-usual offensive performance last time out, but I think its scoring comes back down to earth tonight.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.