It's a load management day for most of the Sport DFW team today as we brace for the whirlwind of the NFL season, but fear not. Yours truly is still here to drop the top Dallas sports betting pick for Friday, and this one's a doozy. So let's get right into it.
Dallas Best Bets: July 21, 2023
Jason Schandl: Rangers Score Over 5.5 Runs
Things have been off for the Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin this season, and it goes way deeper than his jump to a 3.72 ERA might make it seem. It's been a far uglier season.
Digging into the advanced stats surrounding that ERA, It’s incredibly ugly no matter which acronym is your favorite. xERA? 4.88. FIP? 4.69. xFIP? 5.01. SIERA? 4.91. This hasn’t just been a mediocre year — he’s been downright bad in many ways.
A big part of that has been issues with control. He’s only hitting the zone on 38.4% of his pitches, and when he’s missing he’s not missing well. Despite getting hitters chasing outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (35.2%), he’s allowing contact on a career-high 70% (!) of those swings, and his swinging-strike rate has plummeted to 9.2% (his previous career low was 12.0%).
Player performance ebbs and flows, so it's not always a concern to see an elevated ERA through half a season. But it does become a huge concern when it's backed by so many poor underlying numbers.
And if you're a new user at Caesars Sportsbook, you'll get an incredible promo offer for tailing this bet. Anyone who signs up through the exclusive Sport DFW link and deposits at least $10 will have their entire first wager returned in bonus credits if it doesn't win — for up to $1,250! So if you bet $100 on the Rangers to go over 5.5 runs and they don't then you'll automatically get $100 in bonus credit. And if the bet does win you get the whole cash payout like usual!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.