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Cowboys vs. Browns Week 1 Odds Make Shocking Move As Season Opener Approaches

Cowboys fans are feeling disrespected by the odds for their Week 1 matchup against the Cleveland Browns.

By Jason Schandl

Oct 4, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) drops back to pass against Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) in the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 4, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) drops back to pass against Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) in the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
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When the Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns Week 1 odds were first released months ago, they seemed a little ridiculous. But that was all the way back in May — who's really betting on Week 1 games in May anyway? There was plenty of time for the odds to move, and they did.

Except they've moved in the wrong direction. After opening as 1-point underdogs against the Browns in Week 1, the Cowboys are now 2.5-point underdogs as the season officially gets underway. Let's take a deeper look at the odds for this game from FanDuel Sportsbook and what they mean.

Cowboys vs. Browns Week 1 Odds

  • Spread: DAL +2.5 (-110) | CLE -2.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: DAL (+120) | CLE (-142)
  • Over/Under: 42.5 — Over (-105) | Under (-115)

For those of you who aren't fully familiar with reading betting odds yet, here's a quick rundown of what these odds are saying:

The moneyline shows that the Browns are favored to win this game. If you bet $20 on Cleveland and they win, you'd win $14. A $20 bet on Dallas would pay out $24 if they win. Converting these odds to probability (and removing the cut the sportsbook takes), the odds project Cleveland for a 56.35% chance to win the game (compared to 43.65% for Dallas).

The point spread suggests we're looking at a close game though. The payout for the spread is the same whichever side you bet on. For the Browns -2.5 to win, you need Cleveland to win by more than 2.5 points (i.e. a field goal or more). For Dallas +2.5 to win, you need Dallas to win the game or lose by fewer than 2.5 points (i.e. lose by 1 or 2 points).

The over/under is a projected combined point total for the game. The under is slightly favored against the over here, so the teams are projected to combine for roughly 42 points. If they score a combined 43 or more, the over would win.

In short, the odds are probably feeling like a bit of a slap in the face to Cowboys fans.

Did Dallas have a great offseason? No, but that doesn't mean they should be underdogs here. This is largely the same squad that went 12-5 and won the NFC East last season. Drama aside, the Dak Prescott-CeeDee Lamb connection is alive and well, and all indications from the offseason seem like Mike Zimmer has shored up this defense nicely.

The season-long odds even reflect the Cowboys still being one of the most dangerous teams in the NFC. Their +1800 odds to win the Super Bowl rank No. 9 in the NFL and No. 4 among NFC teams. The Browns are down in 15th at +3500.

So the betting markets admit the Cowboys are much better than the Browns. Where's this Week 1 line coming from? Sure, Cleveland is at home, but they were also already known to be the home team back when the spread opened at 1.0. This could be a sign that bettors have been piling on the Browns. Which, when you think about how much people like to hate the Cowboys, probably makes sense.

This disrespect will make it all the sweeter (and more profitable) for Cowboys fans if Dallas can pull off the "upset" (which maybe shouldn't even be considered an upset at all) on Sunday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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