The Dallas Cowboys are on pace to easily crush the NFL record for the highest point differential in a single season, having won their first two games by an average margin of 30.0 points. That pace is obviously unlikely to continue, but a matchup with the Arizona Cardinals means we shouldn't actually expect too much regression in Week 3.
Here's a look at what oddsmakers are projecting for Sunday's Cowboys-Cardinals matchup.
Cowboys vs. Cardinals Week 3 Opening Odds
A 13-point favorite is not something you see every week in the NFL. In fact, there hasn't been any team favored by double-digit points yet in 2023. We only saw 12 games with a favorite of 13 points or more in 2022. So this spread isn't quite historic, but it's a pretty darn big one.
And the fact that it's happening with Dallas on the road is even more rare. Home-field advantage is generally worth about 3 points on an NFL spread, Only four of those 13-plus point favorites last year were road teams, and so far in 2023 we've only seen one road team favored by even 5 points or more.
Dallas giving almost two touchdowns on the spread is massive, and it highlights just how ridiculous they've been to start the year.
Have the 20 and 40-point blowouts been against bad teams? Sure. But the Cardinals are a bad team too — having just blown a big lead against the very same Giants team that Dallas slaughtered 40-0 in Week 1. What hope does Josh Dobbs have against Micah Parsons?
Even if the Cowboys only win by 13, that would give them a point differential of +73 through just three games. For context, Dallas finished the 2022 season with a +125 differential across 17 regular season games, which was good for fifth in the NFL.
If Dallas is +73 through Week 3, they'd need just a differential of just +3.9 per game to beat their mark from last year.
But what about making history?
The highest ever single-season point differential was +315 by the 2007 New England Patriots. That requires a differential of +18.5 per game for a 17-game season to beat.
Starting the season +73 would have the Cowboys firmly on pace to crush that recrord, averaging 24.3 per game.
And of course, that's just if they hit the spread exactly. The Cowboys have demolished the spread in the first two games. Another 20-point win is absolutely a possibility this week, and the Cowboys' point differential may well be in the 80s by the time they'e finished with the Cardinals.
Whether you think the Cowboys continue this torrid start or actually like the Cardinals to keep it close, you can get up to $350 (including $200 guaranteed) either way by making that pick on DraftKings Sportsbook. If you sign up through the exclusive Sport DFW link below you only need to wager $5 on the Cowboys-Cardinals game to automatically unlock your $200 bonus, which pays out in full whether your bet wins or loses, plus you get up to $150 in no-sweat bets. There's no easier way to cash in on this mismatch, so sign up now to claim your $350 before the offer expires!