West coast, Texas coast, burnt toast: Cowboys don’t need more runs

What kind of offense will the Dallas Cowboys have in 2023? In the post-Kellen Moore era, it’s tough to say. Mike McCarthy is taking full control of it for the first time since his arrival, so it’s safe to say it will be in his image.

If you ask McCarthy today what that image is he’ll say things like “I just want to run the damn ball.” He’ll preach of his desire for balance and how he’s more concerned with winning games than scoring points (someone should give him a heads up those aren’t mutually exclusive, in fact, quite the contrary).

Cowboys fans don’t know what to expect on offense but one thing is clear – they don’t need a more prominent running game

Starting out as a coach under Marty Schottenheimer, McCarthy learned first-hand what “Martyball” entailed. Schottenheimer’s maligned philosophy involved a stubborn running game with low-risk passing. Often leaning on a stout defense, Martyball was designed to limit possessions and keep things close.

If it sounds like WCO and Martyball are on opposite sides of the spectrum, welcome to the conundrum.

Based on McCarthy’s statements over the past few seasons, that sounds exactly like what he’s gunning for in 2023. The hiring of Marty Schottenheimer’s son only adds fuel to the fire: The Dallas Cowboys are going to go back in time to adopt an offense that wasn’t even cool 20 years ago.

Complicating matters in this exercise in prognostication is the fact McCarthy is a West Coast offense guy. WCO is an attack designed built to largely replace the run game with a series of high percentage short passes. By working the field horizontally, it spreads out defenses and patently works underneath, occasionally peppering in a deep ball here and there.

If it sounds like WCO and Martyball are on opposite sides of the spectrum, welcome to the conundrum.

What McCarthy did in Green Bay screams WCO. It’s hard to find a time before Dallas where he did anything resembling Martyball. If it wasn’t for last season when the Cowboys were inexplicably No. 2 in rushing attempts, the idea of a McCarthy offense being run-heavy would sound rather preposterous.

In minicamps, Dak Prescott spoke to reporters describing the new offense as mix between the previous system and the WCO. Calling it “Texas Coast,” Prescott bestowed upon the many creatively drained news outlets some headline gold.

If the run-heavy nature of the Cowboys’ offense over the past three seasons was at McCarthy’s behest, is that the part that carries over? Does that mean McCarthy wants more runs than even last year?

It may be better for the Cowboys to just punt on first down a couple times than to embrace the inefficiency that is their running game.

The Dallas Cowboys output on the ground wasn’t remotely efficient. Dallas’ success rate rushing was just 41.4 percent with the average EPA sat at -0.031. Both numbers indicate the running game did more harm than good. It may be better for the Cowboys to just punt on first down a couple times than to embrace the inefficiency that is their running game.

No one could have looked at the Cowboys offense in 2022 and come to the conclusion they needed more runs. Even factoring in Prescott’s high interception rate, the passing game was far more effective in expected points and in success rate.

Yet, here we sit. What is “Texas Coast?” If it’s anything like Green Bay then this is a whole lot of worry over nothing. If it’s anything like last season, or <gasp> even more run-heavy, this offense might as well be burnt toast.