2. Ezekiel Elliott Doesn't Even Rush for 20 Yards
Zeke just had his best game yet with the Patriots, and emotions will be running high when he returns to Dallas for the first time on Sunday. But it's not going to be a fairytale ending for Elliott in Week 4.
First off, look at his rush attempts from his first three games:
- Loss to the Eagles: 7 carries
- Loss to the Dolphins: 5 carries
- Win over the Jets: 16 carries
It's pretty well established at this point that teams usually run more because they're winning, not that they're winning because they run more. We saw this last week when seven of Zeke's carries came while New England was trying to bleed the clock in the fourth quarter.
With the Patriots sizable road underdogs here, however, there's going to be no "grind out the clock" time, which means a much lesser dose of Zeke.
And if he's seeing something like 5 or 7 carries, he doesn't have much hope of hitting 30 yards. New England's O-line is PFF's 24th-ranked unit in terms of run blocking while Dallas ranks above average in run defense. With limited opportunities and limited efficiency, it's going to be a very disappointing return for Zeke.