Dallas Cowboys: Secret plan to trade down in the 2021 NFL Draft?

Fair or not, the Dallas Cowboys are somewhat known for their draft day shenanigans. Despite the fact they rarely trade around in Round 1, their reputation is that they’re ready to wheel and deal all day long. This year they may actually live up to that reputation.

At Pick 10 in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Dallas Cowboys are positioned where they could hold the keys to the kingdom. With five potential franchise quarterbacks this year, there’s a good chance No. 5 will be on the board when Dallas goes on the clock. That puts our beloved Cowboys in a very high-leverage situation.

The Dallas Cowboys’ ideal scenario may be trading back in the 2021 NFL Draft

Teams like New England, Washington, Pittsburgh, and Chicago are all in the market for a franchise QB this year and none of them are positioned in the top-10 to get one. Trading up may be their only chance to realistically find one this year and Pick 10 looks like their spot to do it.

If QB5 is there, teams will be competing to move up. Forget everything you know about the famous Jimmy Johnson draft pick trade chart. When teams are hunting QBs all bets are off. If you add in a possible bidding war, the market explodes.

QBs yield a king’s ransom

It’s not breaking news to say a quarterback is the most important position in the game of football. It produces 3x the WAR (wins above replacement) and over 4x the EPA (expected points added) as other positions, skill positions or otherwise. It takes an entire team to make up for a poor QB but it only takes a great QB to make up for poor team.

General Managers know their career is largely based on the ability to find a franchise QB. That’s why they’ll move heaven and earth to find one. And heaven and earth is exactly what the Dallas Cowboys could demand in return for that last coveted franchise QB.

The Dallas Cowboys are ready to deal

In a recent interview, Stephen Jones did what he does best and that’s priming the pumps. He spoke of a willingness to do just about anything in the draft this year. He talked about needing to upgrade defense. He discussed willingness to pick offense if someone fell into his lap. He even talked about trading.

Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones on @1053thefan of trade interest for team's No. 10 overall pick: "We're starting to get a few calls, and I think it will only pick up as we get closer to next Thursday."
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) April 19, 2021

Not committed to any one direction, the Dallas Cowboys have essentially said they’re open for business. Teams have already started inquiring and you can bet the Cowboys are ready to here offers.

If a top-5 QB is still on the board, trading back may actually be the Dallas Cowboys Plan A in the 2021 NFL Draft.

The good news is, all of this ambiguity means Dallas isn’t committed in any one direction. They will hear trade offers but aren’t determined to trade. Other teams know they will have to wow Dallas out of Pick 10. And when you get multiple teams are completing for the same thing – prices can go through the roof.

The Athletic recently proposed a trade possibility between the Chicago Bears and the Dallas Cowboys. They suggested swapping picks 10 for pick 20 plus a second rounder and a 2021 third rounder. While I believe the price will be much higher for the Cowboys to bite, I like the idea of getting extra picks in 2022.

The 2021 NCAA season was a mess and player evaluations have never been more volatile. It stands to reason the 2021 season will be much easier to assess and scouting will be more stable as a result. Trading out of picks in 2021 may be too much delayed gratification for some, but it’s good business because it reduces the immense bust potential of the 2021 class. If Dallas can get an extra second rounder in 2022 as well, it could be well worth the 10 spot drop in the draft.