While the NBA offseason is still underway and some teams are still building their rosters for next season, the Dallas Mavericks are done with most of their work. Now, it's time to look at their outlook for Cooper Flagg's sophomore NBA season.
They have to tinker with the roster a little bit, as they have 16 players under contract and may part ways with a couple of veterans, but we have a general idea of what the depth chart will look like.
With a ton of new faces and uncertainty about the return from injury of some of the familiar faces, how good is this Mavs team? Where do they rank in the loaded Western Conference?
Mavs were better than their record last season
Dallas finished last season tied for the 11th spot in the West with a 26-56 record and a -5.6 net rating. They were the 27th-best offense and 20th-best defense. However, these numbers don't paint the full picture.
Until the trade deadline, the Mavs were 19-31 and had a -2.8 net rating. They were actually the 11th-best defense in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass. After their deadline moves, the Mavs pulled the plug on their season and began to maximize lottery odds by tanking. Before the Mavs were throwing games away in the spring, they were a much better team than their record indicates.
Obviously, this is a very different team. Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II will be back. It will be a year and a half since Irving's ACL tear, so he should be fully healthy and ready to go. It will take a while for him to get back to 100 percent, but he will single-handedly help the Mavs become a better offense.
Defensively, there is little reason why the Mavs can't repeat last season's 11th-best defense. They have a ton of size, length, and physicality, especially in the frontcourt.
Dallas has plenty of depth and upside but the West is still strong
We can expect significant improvement from Flagg on both ends of the floor. He's arguably a top-20 player in the NBA today and could rise to All-Star status next season. With better talent and spacing around him, Flagg should be more efficient offensively and more of a playmaker defensively. It's now a matter of how much help he's going to get.
There will be three rookies in Morez Johnson Jr., Tarik Biberovic, and Sergio de Larrea. Johnson Jr. and de Larrea looked great in the Summer League, and Biberovic has a ton of upside, but what they will contribute as rookies remains to be seen.
This team has a ton of depth. Even guys like Zaccharie Risacher and Caleb Martin are lower on the depth chart, but could end up getting valuable minutes. Naji Marshall, who can arguably be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, is one of the most reliable bench pieces in the game. Even if Lively II and Irving aren't as available as Mavs fans would like, this team can still have a solid ten-man rotation.
There are also ways the Mavs can exceed expectations. Any one of Biberovic, de Larrea, Johnson Jr., or Risacher could emerge as high-level rotation players. New head coach Dusty May could unlock something Jason Kidd couldn't last season, and May already has plenty of depth to use.
As things stand now, there are four teams the Mavs are clearly better than in the Western Conference: the Clippers, Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Kings. This could put them in the Play-In race by default. The Warriors, Blazers, Suns, and the Jazz aren't too far ahead of Dallas.
Given the talent and depth on this team, the Mavs should have a floor of 30-35 wins next season. Depending on how Irving and Lively are looking, the Mavs could win in the high-30s. If it all works out, one can see a best-case scenario in which Dallas wins around 45 games. Anything above .500 and a Play-In appearance should be considered a very successful season for the new-look Mavs.
Prediction: 39-43
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