Dallas Mavericks: Is Nerlens Noel worth a max contract?

The Dallas Mavericks may need to pony up max money in order to retain restricted free agent Nerlens Noel this summer. Is he worth it?

The Dallas Mavericks may not have much money to shop in free agency after all. According to reports, multiple NBA teams have their sights set on Nerlens Noel, the Dallas Mavericks 23-year-old restricted free agent.

Of course, the restricted element of his free agent allows the Mavs to match any outside offer. This was certainly something the Mavs brain trust had in mind when they traded for the former Kentucky Wildcat in the middle of a lost season.

they are paying for who they project Nerlens Noel to become and not who he currently is.

Adding Noel had nothing to do with the 2016-17 season and everything to do with the future. Whether or not the Dallas Mavericks expected his market value to be in a max range is unknown. But it sure as hell caught many outside the Mavs and around the NBA off guard.

How much is Max?

The exact dollar figure of what a Nerlens Noel max deal would entail has been debated the past two weeks. But according to Mike Fisher at Scout.com, this is what we can expect:

"“Assuming the cap at $101 million, as the NBA is expecting, Noel’s contract can start at 25 perecent of the cap with eight percent annual raises. That equals $25.25 million as his starting salary and about $146.45 million over five years.Competing bidders can offer restricted free agent Noel a four-year max deal worth 25 percent of the cap and also starting at $25.25 mil, but with just five percent annual raises, equaling about $108.575 million over four years. Dallas can match any offer and retain.”"

If that sounds like it’s a lot that’s because it is. Even if the cap turned out to be slightly less than projected above. It’s likely the money much more than many of us were expecting from a still-developing non-All Star center.

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What Are the Mavs Paying For?

It’s important to point out, if they offer Noel either the five-year max or the four-year matching offer, they are paying for who they project Nerlens Noel to become and not who he currently is. It’s the same gamble they took when they threw piles of cash at Harrison Barnes. They gambled on the future.

Gambling on the future seems to be the only successful route the Mavs can take these days. Courting premium All-Stars in free agency hasn’t worked. Neither has employing over-the-hill stopgaps. Like it or not, the trade market and paying for potential are the only courses of action working.

Is Noel Worth Max Money?

The question everyone is asking right now is if Nerlens Noel is worth it. While many ask rhetorically as if to imply “of course he’s not”, I’m here to say “of course he is”.

First of all, the worth of something on the open market is decided by the actual market (aka the potential buyers).

Players are worth exactly what teams are willing to pay.

Some are bad investments and some are good investments but the “worth” of someone isn’t really up for debate when teams are allowed to bid.

Obviously the very nature of price controls, right to match, and other pay restrictions prevent NBA free agency from ever being a true free market, but the principles are the same.

Next: How the Mavs afford a max free agent

What Noel Offers

The better question to ask is if Noel is a smart investment. To that you can have an argument. In coming days we’ll dive in deeper on what exactly Nerlens Noel offers the Dallas Mavericks.

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